'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For NJ Hurricane Season

A developing El Niño - and a potential "Super El Niño" - will be one of the biggest forces driving the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Niña. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Niño pattern.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but much of the activity occurs mid-August through early October. With the timing of the El Niño, that would make for fewer storms during that time.

"Typically, El Niño creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape," AccuWeather forecasters said. "With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half."

There's also an about 15 percent chance for a "Super El Niño," forecasters said. That would make for a sharp reduction in storm activity.

AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms for the upcoming hurricane season. The historical average is 14 named storms. Forecasters also expect three to five direct impacts on the United States.

"On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes," AccuWeather said.

It's worth noting that a hurricane season can still be dangerous even if it is below average.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."

For example, 2025 storm Hurricane Erin did not make landfall in or directly hit New Jersey, it still had major impacts along the Jersey Shore.

“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”