Meteorological Winter Is Here: New Winter Weather Predictions For NJ

NEW JERSEY — Winter officially begins in less than 3 weeks in New Jersey and the National Weather Service's(NWS) updated predictions offer a glimpse of how the season will shape up.

Currently, temperatures are on the warmer side in New Jersey hovering around the 50s this week, which is expected to continue throughout the winter season.

For December through February, temperatures in New Jersey have a 40 to 50 percent chance of being above normal, according to NWS's updated map released on Nov. 16.

Despite warmer-than-usual weather predicted this winter, don't be fooled. New Jersey has a 33 to 40 percent chance of having above-normal precipitation for the 2023-24 winter season which can include snow, sleet or rain.

So when will this snow come? While some could fall in December, the bigger storms are not likely until later in the winter, according to multiple researchers. February, in particular, could be a month filled with snowstorms.

"February can be an active and intense month," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist and veteran forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

A driving force behind what New Jersey can expect this winter can be attributed to El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years.

El Niño conditions are already inevitable, according to a consesus of scientists, with sea temperatures in the Pacific several degrees warmer than usual. This warmer water impacts what weather is carried on the winds to the United States. It's now considered very likely that this will keep temperatures warmer across much of the eastern seaboard, and conditions will likely "squash any widespread and meaningful cold in Northern Eurasia and eastern North America for weeks and possibly even months to come," Judah Cohen, with the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said last week.

Overall, forecasters are telling residents to keep their snow shovels handy. Accuweather predicts between 18 and 26 inches of snow this winter for New York City area, in line with the historical average of 29.8. Last year, the city received just 2.3 inches.