Why Chris Christie Cannot Carry New Jersey

Governor Christie of New Jersey is running for the republican nomination in the 2016 presidential election. Those supporting Governor Christie look to the 2013 election as proof the governor can garner democrat votes. (Use the image links to get a better view of the graphics)

Image 1 shows the distribution of votes for the democrat and republican candidates in the 2012 presidential and 2013 gubernatorial elections. They appear to be mirror images of each other. President Obama won 59% of the vote in 2012 and Governor Christie carried 61.2% of this vote one year later. It appears Mr. Christie received many of the votes that went to Obama. His supporters say this is proof Mr Christie may carry Democratic states and the Presidency in 2016. A deeper look at the numbers tell a different story.

Image 2 There are 21 counties in New Jersey. They are divided into three categories based on their electoral results in the 2012 presidential elections. The democrat counties are those 12 counties carried by Obama by greater than 10 percentage points. The five republican counties are those carried by Romney by greater than 10 points and the balance are the swing counties. The democrat counties accounted for over 68% of the total democrat / republican vote; republican 18% and the swing votes for about 14%. A republican hoping to win a New Jersey presidential election must make take democrat votes in the 12 democrat counties accounting for 68% of the vote. How did Christie perform in these counties in 2013?

Image 3 Governor Christie received a majority of votes in all categories. President Obama won only the Democratic counties. Obama carried only the democrat counties by a higher percent than Christie. Christie carried the state at a slightly higher percentage than Obama. This looks good for Governor Christie but this is where the good news ends. The gross vote totals tell a different story.

Image 4 Governor Christie’s easy win over Barbara Buono was the direct result of a Democratic Party throwing in the towel. This will not be true in a presidential contest. Governor Christie was successful at keeping the total vote down in general and the democrat vote down in particular. Christie did win a higher percentage of the NJ vote than Obama (republican and democrat votes only). Romney, the 2012 republican nominee won just 41% of the vote yet he received almost 200,000 more votes than Christie received in his 60% victory. This is because total turnout dropped by 42% from the 2012 Obama victory. The largest decrease is in the counties that supported President Obama’s re-election. Governor Christie won his landslide by creating an environment where the NJ Democratic Party threw in the towel and democrat voters stayed home. This is not to say that Christie was not a popular governor or he would not win re-election as governor in a real battle. It is obvious the NJ Democrat party would put up a fierce fight in a presidential campaign. The only way Christie could win this battle is to gain a majority of the democrat votes that stayed home with 75% supporting Obama in 2013. This is highly unlikely in a campaign against someone like Hillary Clinton. Christie may make it closer but he will not win New Jersey. A secondary issue,that may be more important, is winning a higher percentage of democrats may force him to take stands that hurt him with the republican base. Romney showed us how turning away the base is not a winning strategy. Governor Christie will not help in New Jersey and unlikely to help with the base. Losing democrat states by a smaller percentage than other republicans is not a winning strategy.