What's Driving the Drop in Teen Licensure?

There have been a lot of media reports lately about teens waiting to get a driver's license.  Unlike my generation, it seems today’s teens just aren’t rushing off to the DMV the minute they turn 16 (the average licensing age in the vast majority of states).  So what gives?  

An article in the latest Status Report, published by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), notes that technology is certainly making it easier for teens to connect with their friends reducing their reliance on cars.  At the same time, some teens may be waiting until they’re 18 to avoid the restrictions imposed by their state’s graduated driver license or GDL law.  While teens in most states age out of GDL requirements at 18, New Jersey is one of a handful of states where the three-step licensing program applies to all novice drivers under 21.  (We’re also the only state that requires new drivers 21 and older to complete a modified version of the GDL program.)  

Social media and stringent GDL requirements may be factors in the drop in teen licensure, but new research suggests the economy is really to blame.  The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) looked at the findings of the University of Michigan’s Monitoring the Future survey to determine the number of high school seniors who had a driver’s license and didn’t drive during an average week from 1996 to 2010.  What they found is that the number of teens with driver licenses declined from 82 percent in 1996 to 73 percent in 2012.  The largest decrease occurred in conjunction with the recession from 2006 to 2010. 

Meanwhile, the number of teens who didn’t drive during a 7-day period increased from 15 percent in 1996 to 22 percent in 2010.  Interestingly, the researchers pointed out that the number of high school seniors increased between 2006 and 2009 after holding steady the previous 10 years.   

This premise that the economy impacts licensure is also supported by a November 2010 Allstate Foundation survey of 15 to 18-year olds.  While most of the teens said they’d like to get a license as soon as possible, many hadn’t started the process.  Why?  Not having a car and the cost of driving were the leading reasons for the delay.  

The IIHS article goes on to say that some states are considering extending their GDL laws to older beginners.  Connecticut now requires novice drivers 18 and older to complete a three-month learner’s period and California is considering GDL requirements for all new drivers under 20.  Will other state’s follow New Jersey’s lead?   

GDL is the most effective tool states have for reducing novice driver crash risk.  In states with  GDL provisions, overall crash rates among teens have declined from 20 to 40 percent.  New Jersey’s GDL program, which is often described as a model for other states, has been studied extensively by IIHS and others.  The limits on passengers, night driving and cell phone use, coupled with a seat belt and decal requirement and the nation’s oldest licensing age of 17, have resulted in significant reductions in crashes involving 17 and 18-year-olds.  

While some GDL detractors believe these restrictions impose a hardship on teens resulting in delays in licensure, the latest research debunks that thinking.  Additionally, a new IIHS survey of New Jersey teens found that they overwhelmingly support not only the state’s older licensing age, but the requirement that all beginners younger than 21 complete the GDL program.