A back door cold front has driven through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas and has stalled over central Pennsylvania. As a result, the entire region is now under the influence of a cool, moist Atlantic marine air mass driven right from the Canadian Maritimes. This cooler air mass will give way by Friday to a cold front approaching from the west leading to periods of heavy rainfall throughout the region.
Today through tomorrow, high pressure to the east of Maine will be in control for the most part. A marine air mass will be in place leading to scattered to broken cloud cover and the threat for an isolated shower. The isolated showers will be capable of heavy downpours at times. Winds will be from the east and southeast at 5 to 15 mph, 10 to 20 mph along the immediate coast. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the lower to mid 60's over eastern Long Island, upper 60's to lower 70's over much of the New York City metropolitan area, and lower to mid 70's over the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50's over Long Island and Connecticut and upper 50's to lower 60's throughout the rest of the region. Tomorrow afternoon temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60's over Long Island, upper 60's to lower 70's over the New York City metropolitan area, and mid to upper 70's over the Philadelphia metropolitan area.
A powerful cold front will march through the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday afternoon and evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and wind gusts over 40 mph. Very heavy rainfall will lead to visibility falling below a mile and localized urban and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches can be expected over much of the region with localized higher amounts possible in heavy downpours. Temperatures on Friday will range from the lower to mid 60's for lows and upper 60's to lower 70's for highs.
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High pressure will take hold Saturday and remain in control through Tuesday with generally tranquil conditions. Scattered cloud cover can be expected with a few disturbances producing an isolated shower from time to time. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will range from the lower to mid 50's for lows and lower to mid 70's for highs. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will range from the upper 40's to lower 50's for lows and upper 60's to lower 70's for highs.
