GOP’s Hugin Gaining On Bob Menendez In US Senate Race: Polls

The Battle of the Bobs is heating up in New Jersey as Republican Bob Hugin and Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat, head into the home stretch of a surprisingly close U.S. Senate race.

According to a new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, the contest between longtime incumbent Menendez and Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, is now a “horse race.”

As part of the poll, potential voters were asked the question: “If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

As of Aug. 22, Menendez leads Hugin by a 43 to 37 percent margin. Menendez’s slim, 6-point lead shrunk from a 49 to 32 percent margin reported during a separate poll on March 13, Quinnipiac University stated.

At the same time Hugin is gaining on Menendez, the number of voters who find the veteran senator “unfavorable” has leaped to 47 percent from 37 percent on March 13, the poll stated.

However, the increasingly negative campaign – which has seen vehement accusations from both camps – has also affected Hugin. About 20 percent of voters now find the Republican challenger “unfavorable,” as opposed to just 7 percent on March 13.

Pollsters said that voters are falling into line according to party affiliation, with Republicans backing Hugin at 85 to 6 percent and Democrats backing Menendez at 74 to 10 percent.

There are 2,187,928 registered Democrats and 1,272,306 registered Republicans in New Jersey, according to recent state election data. There are 2,346,178 unaffiliated voters registered statewide.

Other details from the Aug. 22 Quinnipiac University poll included:

• “There is a wide racial gap as Hugin leads 47 to 38 percent among white voters and Menendez leads 51 to 18 percent among non-white voters.”
• “Independent voters are divided with 37 percent for Hugin and 33 percent for Menendez.”

“As Sen. Robert Menendez sees his once dominant lead whittled down to single digits, New Jersey voters are sending a clear message… they are troubled by the ethics cloud hanging over him,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac Poll.

Menendez was recently accused of offering a friend political favors in exchange for lavish gifts and campaign contributions. His high-profile trial represented a rare event in recent U.S. history: a sitting senator facing felony charges.

In January, the U.S. Justice Department announced that it was dropping all charges against Menendez.

• See related article: Sen. Menendez Corruption Trial: Things To Know
• See related article: Feds Seek To Dismiss Charges Against U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez

Reacting to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Democratic Party Chair John Currie downplayed the numbers, saying that Hugin had “hit his high-water mark” in the election.

“After spending $10 million on dishonest attack ads against Senator Menendez, he's no closer to winning than any other recent Republican Senate candidate,” Currie stated.

“New Jersey voters are about to learn the truth about Hugin's record of raising prices on cancer patients and donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Donald Trump's campaign,” Currie continued. “Senator Menendez is a proven fighter who will stand up against the Trump agenda and do what's right for our communities, and that's why he'll be re-elected in November.”

BOB HUGIN: ‘WHAT I LEARNED IN THE MARINES’

“This poll confirms why Bob Menendez started his dishonest negative attacks before Labor Day — he’s running scared and he should be,” Hugin’s communications director Megan Piwowar said.

“New Jersey voters are sick and tired of Menendez and his numbers are tanking, while momentum for business leader and Marine Corps Veteran Bob Hugin continues to grow,” Piwowar added.

The results of another recent survey taken on July 16 showed an even smaller margin in Menendez’s favor. According to Gravis Marketing, which polled 563 likely New Jersey voters, if asked to vote for one or the other, 43 percent would choose Menendez and 41 percent would choose Hugin.

In a recent interview with Patch, Hugin said that his top three local priorities for New Jersey would be:

• “Making New Jersey more affordable”
• “Improving our infrastructure”
• “Reforming healthcare”

“Politicians in Washington would rather point fingers at each other rather than extend their hands in cooperation and compromise,” Hugin said. “My time in the Marines taught me so many lessons that I carried into my life, and now into this race for senate. In the Marines, you don't ask someone if they are a Democrat or a Republican, or if they agree with you on every issue. Instead, you work together as a team and you find common ground to achieve a shared goal. Frankly, that's what we need more of in Congress, and that's the kind of senator I will be for New Jersey.”

• See related article: 3 Questions With New Jersey's US Senate Candidates

MENENDEZ TOUTS FUNDRAISING, ENDORSEMENTS

While his Republican challenger may be gaining in the polls, Menendez’s campaign team has been touting other signs of success.

In July, Menendez’s campaign announced that it raised over $2.5 million in the second quarter of 2018, a 29% bump over last quarter. The senator’s latest total also outpaced funds raised during the same period in 2012.

According to Menendez’s campaign:

“The $2,536,405 raised this quarter to help re-elect Bob Menendez includes $1,628,738 through the Menendez for Senate campaign, $697,587 to the Menendez Victory Fund, $175,079 in New Millennium PAC receipts, and $35,000 directly to the State Democratic Committee. The campaign reported $1,799,726 total raised last quarter: $1,489,026 for the Menendez for Senate campaign, $235,200 to the Menendez Victory Fund, and $75,500 to New Millennium PAC… To date, the Menendez campaign has raised around $11.2 million from outside donations.”

“The stakes in this election couldn’t be higher, and the support for Senator Menendez is as strong as ever,” Campaign Chairman Michael Soliman said. “There’s momentum across the state and it's growing.”

In addition, recent endorsements for Menendez include:

The Sierra Club – “New Jersey needs a fighter in the Senate who will stand up to Donald Trump’s attacks on our clean air, clean water, our oceans and our beaches. From protecting our coasts and coastal communities from dangerous drilling to defending life-saving climate protections to working to create good-paying clean energy jobs, Bob Menendez stands with Garden Staters and will stand up to Trump and the corporate polluters.” (Richard Isaac, New Jersey Sierra Club Political Chair)

Planned Parenthood Action Fund – “Senator Menendez is a longtime supporter of the care that Planned Parenthood health centers provide. Menendez has fought against every attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and has advocated for access to birth control by co-sponsoring legislation to make it more affordable and accessible for all women.” (Dawn Laguens, Executive Vice President Planned Parenthood Action Fund)

Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union – “As a co-sponsor of the Protecting America’s Workers Act, Senator Menendez increased the penalties for violations and made it easier to prosecute employers. For these and so many more reasons, from his stance on paid medical and paid sick leave to his fight to extend TPS for so many immigrant workers, we endorse Senator Menendez’s re-election campaign.” (Stuart Appelbaum, President of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union)

On August 21, Menendez released his first campaign video. Watch it – and one of Hugin’s most recent, posted on Aug. 22 – below.

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Photo 1: YouTube / Menendez For NJ

Photo 2: YouTube / Team Hugin