NJ Governor Election: New Poll Shows Republican Frontrunner, Close Democrat Race

NEW JERSEY — A new poll is showing a “leading Republican candidate” in the race for New Jersey governor – Jack Ciattarelli – while the Democratic candidates remain within striking distance of each other, researchers say.

The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick released the results of their latest poll on Friday. Learn more about its methodology here.

Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited and can’t run again in 2025. Over the past year, a large field of candidates have been jockeying for position to replace him, including Ciattarelli, who ran against Murphy in 2021.

Democratic and Republican candidates will face off for their party’s nomination in a primary election on June 10. The winners will advance to the general election on Nov. 4, which will also include any third-party or independent candidates.

REPUBLICANS

According to Rutgers-Eagleton pollsters, Ciattarelli is at the front of the pack in the Republican race:

“When asked to think about the upcoming primary, 42% of New Jersey registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed say they prefer former assemblyman and 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli. Former radio host Bill Spadea comes in a distant second, with 12%. Four percent of Republicans say they prefer state Sen. Jon Bramnick, 3% chose Justin Barbera, and no one chooses Mario Kranjac. Four percent say they prefer none of these candidates.”

When asked who their second choice would be, it is a toss-up between Spadea (16%), Bramnick (12%), and Ciattarelli (12%) – all within the margin of error, pollsters said.

Would an endorsement from President Donald Trump make a difference?

“Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are split as to whether an endorsement from President Trump would make them more likely to vote for a Republican candidate (46%) or if it would have no effect on their vote (46%),” pollsters reported, adding that 7 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for the endorsed candidate.

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DEMOCRATS

The Democratic side is more complicated, pollsters reported.

Six candidates are still slugging it out in a competitive race, Rutgers-Eagleton said:

“Seventeen percent of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents prefer U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop at 12% - a difference within the margin of error. Next is New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller at 10%, followed by U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each at 9%, and then former state Senate President Steve Sweeney at 7%.”

Four percent of respondents said they prefer none of these candidates, researchers noted.

When asked who their second choice would be, Gottheimer (16%) and Sherrill (15%) topped the list, followed by Baraka (13%), Spiller (12%), and Fulop (11%) – all within the margin of error. Six percent picked Sweeney as their second choice.

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‘TALE OF TWO PRIMARIES’

“We currently have a tale of two primaries,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

“On the Republican side, a leading candidate is coming into focus, while on the Democratic side, there is no clear frontrunner, given that most of the Democratic candidates are within striking distance of one another,” Koning said.

It’s worth noting that candidates on both sides of the aisle are still struggling with name recognition among voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than one in five, Koning added:

“On the Democratic side, 20% of all voters view Sherrill favorably, 14% unfavorably and 22% have no opinion; 44% still don’t know who she is. Gottheimer is at 18% favorable versus 19% unfavorable, with 25% having no opinion; 38% still don’t know who he is. Fifteen percent view Baraka favorably, 16% unfavorably and 24% have no opinion; 46% still don’t know who he is. Thirteen percent of voters view Sweeney favorably, 21% unfavorably, 33% have no opinion and 34% still don’t know who he is. Fourteen percent view Sean Spiller favorably, another 17% unfavorably and 26% have no opinion; 42% still don’t know who he is. Twelve percent of voters are favorable toward Fulop, 12% are unfavorable, 30% have no opinion and 46% still don’t know who he is.”

It’s a similar picture on the Republican side among the top contenders, pollsters said:

“Eighteen percent view Ciattarelli favorably, 24% unfavorably, 26% have no opinion and 32% still don’t know him. Eight percent view Spadea favorably, 18% unfavorably, 24% have no opinion and 51% still don’t know who he is. Six percent give Bramnick a favorable rating, 8% unfavorable and 21% have no opinion; 65% still don’t know who he is.”

Will New Jersey voters turn out at the polls for the primary election? That’s another story, researchers said.

Fifty-five percent of voters claimed they are “very likely” to vote in the June primary and another 22% said “somewhat likely.” Meanwhile, 11% said they are “not very likely” and 9% said “not at all likely.”

“This kind of turnout in an off-cycle election is unlikely, particularly given New Jersey’s history of low primary turnout,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

“Turnout is generally much lower in off-cycle, off-year, and primary elections,” Roman said. “This June will be about who candidates get to turn out and how many.”

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,058 adults contacted through the probability-based NJ Gubernatorial Election Rutgers-Eagleton Poll 3 Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from April 1 to April 10. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 966 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

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