Newark Area Hospitals Lack Beds For Coronavirus Surge: Report

NEWARK, NJ — With the number of new coronavirus cases increasing nationwide, Newark and the surrounding area may run out of beds for patients in some hospitals if the number of infected people rises by even a few hundred, a report says.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from a report by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

The report underscores the seriousness of the need to "flatten the curve" through social distancing, which health officials hope will slow the spread of the disease and keep hospital caseloads manageable. But even in what experts consider a moderate rate of infection, ProPublica said, Newark-area hospitals would fall short of the demand for beds.

New Jersey has recorded 427 confirmed cases and five deaths from COVID-19 as of Wednesday afternoon. READ MORE: NJ Coronavirus Updates: Here's What You Need To Know

MORE CAPACITY NEEDED IN NEWARK AREA

From ProPublica:

“As of 2018, Newark, NJ had 3,640 total hospital beds, of which about 72% were occupied, potentially leaving only 1,030 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 400 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

“The Newark, NJ region has a population of about 1.6 million residents; 12% are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

“In the moderate scenario, in which 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Newark, NJ would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

“It is estimated that about 8% of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40% of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Newark, NJ would receive an estimated 101,000 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 3,380 beds over 12 months, which is 3.3 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

“In the Newark, NJ region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 200 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 3.7 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.”

For the analysis, Dr. Ashish Jha and his team selected various rates of infection and modeled hospital capacity for each over three time periods, six months, 12 months and 18 months. The infection rate scenarios are based on estimates from leading epidemiologist Dr. Marc Lipsitch, head of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health's Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, who made the projections of how many people globally would be infected.

Read the full report and learn about its methodology here.

NEW JERSEY ADDING MORE HOSPITAL BEDS

On Wednesday, Gov. Murphy said he's put in a request with the Trump Administration to help erect more emergency beds and even hospitals.

Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said she's concerned about the health care system, adding that the state is looking to ensure that hospitals have the manpower, the supplies and the space that's needed for the duration of the outbreak.

"There are predictions that many parts of the United States will have far too few hospital beds if the new coronavirus continues to spread," Persichilli said. "That's why we're working with hospitals to develop surge and capacity planning."

The health commissioner said 260 additional beds should be brought online by Wednesday. Of those, 199 will be in North Jersey, 11 will be in Central Jersey and 50 will be in South Jersey.

Persichilli expects 227 additional beds to become available within next three to four weeks.

NEWARK HOSPITALS RESPOND

Patch reached out to University Hospital, St. Michael’s Medical Center and Newark Beth Israel Medical Center for comment on the ProPublica report.

University Hospital President and CEO Shereef Elnahal offered the following reply on Wednesday afternoon:

"University Hospital does not currently have a problem with capacity, and is capable of accepting more patients. The hospital has significant latitude with space as a result of Governor [Phil] Murphy's decision to issue a State of Emergency. This means the hospital can flex capacity for acute and critical care beds beyond what could be done in normal circumstances. University Hospital has been developing contingency plans for potential surge scenarios, and is prepared to utilize its unique assets in the event of such surges. For example, the hospital can utilize its clinical care tents for additional space during a State of Emergency. As another example, operating rooms that are free as a result of cancellation of elected procedures, can be used for critical care beds."

Spokespeople with RWJBarnabas Health, which runs Newark Beth Israel Medical Center, said the hospital has created additional capacity for the treatment of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

All RWJBarnabas Health facilities have tents available to place on their campuses for the purpose of triaging potential COVID-19 patients, if necessary.

"Supply management and personnel are being reviewed daily," RWJBarnabas spokespeople said. "Current utilization of beds and nursing units are being assessed and can be repurposed, as needed."

"We continue to monitor the pandemic internationally as well as the current and rapidly evolving situation here in New Jersey," RWJBarnabas spokespeople added. "Our entire healthcare team is continuing to provide excellent care to all patients, and are taking all necessary precautions and immediate action steps as necessary to ensure the safety of patients and colleagues."

HOSPITALS SURVIVE PROPOSED BED CUTS

It's only been a few years since three hospitals in the city – University Hospital, St. Michael’s Medical Center and Newark Beth Israel Medical Center – avoided a big reduction in their available beds.

In July 2014, the New Jersey Health Care Facilities Financing Authority engaged Navigant Consulting Inc. to to evaluate the current inventory of healthcare services in the Greater Newark area to determine whether there is duplication of services, unused capacity, or an insufficiency of necessary services in this area, and if so, propose recommendations to the state Health Commissioner for consolidation or regionalization of services.

The report looked at five hospitals: University Hospital, Newark Beth Israel Medical Center, Saint Michael's Medical Center, East Orange General Hospital and Clara Maass Medical Center in Belleville.

The report explored several different scenarios, one of which called for repositioning EOGH, SMMC, NBIMC as ambulatory care facilities with University Hospital serving as a regional medical center. The scenario would have reduced the number of available hospital beds in the five hospitals from 1,527 to just 998 beds to serve a population in the study area of more than 600,000.

Ultimately, the report was shelved and the three hospitals remained open as acute care facilities. Saint Michael's was purchased by Prime Healthcare in 2016 and has pulled up its Leapfrog safety grade from an F to an A in less than three years.

East Orange Hospital was purchased by Prospect Medical Holdings, which is seeking another buyer for the hospital, but remains open.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.

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