Best-Case Scenario: August Peak For Coronavirus In Cape May Cty.

Correction: A previous version of the article included the incorrect number for the "best-case" scenario.

CAPE MAY COUNTY, NJ — If everyone in Cape May County adheres to social distancing, the virus may infect around 2,400 people, according to a recent analysis.

The virus may not peak until after July 31 in that case — a troubling economic scenario for many shore towns. But it would mean measures to slow the spread were effective from a public-health standpoint.

That's the conclusion of Columbia University researchers as reported by the New York Times, which compiled maps showing the estimated spread of the virus in every county in America under varying scenarios for control measures.

The best-case scenario includes strict imposition of measures like closing schools, banning mass gatherings, and testing and quarantining sick people and their contacts — measures already in place in New Jersey.

But even in a scenario falling somewhere between these two extremes, the number of infections could top 800 by mid-June — about 0.8 percent of the population, researchers concluded.

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New Jersey has been at a stay-at-home order since 9 p.m. March 21. Before that, Gov. Phil Murphy had ordered schools closed, shut down dine-in meals at restaurants and bars, and limited gatherings to 50 people before shutting everything down.

Murphy has continued to stress the need for people except essential workers to stay home and when they have to go out, limit interaction with others as much as possible.

"Our social distancing directives are not polite suggestions," Murphy said. "They are there for a reason: to flatten the curve, to cut off the surge" of cases that lead to hospitalization and stress on the state's health care system.

But social distancing in the U.S. isn't as easy as telling everyone to stay home, said Mary Travis Bassett, director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University.

"The United States has particular vulnerabilities that make it possible that we'll have the worse coronavirus epidemic of all," Bassett said, citing the country's health, economic and social inequalities.

"These inequalities ... mean that we are both more susceptible and more likely to have people who are not going to follow the public health advice of social distancing, hand-washing and seeking prompt medical care because they risk their livelihood," Bassett said.

She added that many low-wage workers in the health care sector can't afford to miss a day of pay or take a sick day.

"The infusion of financial support to people who are no longer working is absolutely critical," Bassett said, "People are not going to stay home and not feed their families."

More than 155,000 New Jersey residents filed for unemployment last week, the largest surge in recent memory.

Murphy on Thursday said the school closures are likely to remain in place through at least April 17, which is the end of spring break for a number of districts across the state.

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