Here’s How Many NJ Towns, Homes Are At Risk Of Chronic Flooding

A new analysis shows just how many U.S. homes in coastal areas are at risk from chronic flooding due to rising sea levels. The analysis predicts that with those levels, 62,209 of today’s New Jersey homes are at risk of becoming chronically inundated by 2045. The houses are worth nearly $27 billion and shelter almost 79,000 people.

The analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists charts out the risk based on two time frames; the first is the number of homes at risk over the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage and the second is the number of homes at risk by 2100.

The analysis also breaks down the number of homes at risk with a high rate of sea level rise and a moderate rate of sea level rise.

With a high rate of sea level rise, the global average sea level is projected to rise about 2 feet by 2045 and about 6.5 feet by 2100.

Here the towns in New Jersey that are expected to be hardest hit by 2045, and the number of homes at risk:

1. Ocean City 7,251
2. Atlantic City 4,438
3. Toms River 3,648
4. Long Beach Township 2,912
5. North Wildwood 2,211
6. Ventnor 2.121

By 2100, more than four times the number of homes are at risk of becoming chronically swamped by tidal waters. According to the analysis, 250,817 New Jersey homes are at risk of becoming chronically inundated. These homes are worth $107 billion today and are home to over 375,000 people.

And it's not Jersey Shore homes that would be impacted. Here is graphic that shows what New Jersey towns would feel the effects of sea level rise:

Chronic inundation is defined as any area where tidal flooding occurs 26 times per year or about twice a month on average, according to the analysis.

With a moderate rate of sea level rise, fewer number of homes are at risk. By 2035, 24,897 houses worth $9.6 billion and home to over 31,000 people are at risk. By 2100, 182,462 homes worth nearly $75 billion that are home to over 253,000 people are at risk of repeated flooding.

The analysis says with a moderate rate of sea level rise, the global average sea level is projected to rise about 1 foot by 2035 and about 4 feet by 2100.

The authors of the report also identify the number of homes that could be saved if the world takes aggressive action on climate change. Their analysis indicates that more than 2 million of today’s homes, including a handful on the New Jersey coast, could be saved.

Here’s what scientists say the danger of homes at risk of flooding are:

• Steep financial losses to homeowners and commercial property owners
• Declining property values could erode the local tax base
• Mortgages on homes at risk are inherently riskier and homeowners may find themselves with mortgages that exceed their home values

The scientists make a number of recommendations to communities, states, businesses and the federal government to mitigate the problem, including reauthorizing and reforming the National Flood Insurance Program. They also called on state and local policy makers to communicate flood risks to coastal communities. (You can see the full list of recommendations here.)

Researchers used data from Zillow and sea level rise scenarios developed by NOAA. (You can see the full methodology here.)

Read the full analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists here.

Photos: Newark Public Safety Department