Economic Drivers of Business Closures in Toms River, New Jersey.

Many consumers in the Toms River area eventually get wind of the numerous, unexpected closures of their favorite stores and restaurants. But nobody is asking: Why?

The significant number of business closures in Toms River, NJ, has begun to turn heads. For
some, an inconvenient long commute for groceries, and for others, a cheaper alternative to
those rising prices. However you want to look at it, it is happening.

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There is not one sole driver of these closings, however. In fact, it is the result of the combination of several economic factors. Some of these include increased state-level government spending (driving inflationary pressures), superior land driving up rent (as indicated by David Ricardo’s
theory of rent), limited marketing, and the increase of the retirement population living on a fixed income.

According to Keynesian economics, any changes in the equation for real domestic output (Consumer Spending + Investment Spending + Government Spending + Net Exports) will result in a shift of the aggregate demand curve, ultimately affecting price levels and outputs. The New Jersey State Spending Profile indicates an exponential increase in government spending in NJ within the last 3 years, increasing from $86.2 billion in 2023 to $96.3 billion in 2025. In fact, the state is on track to have an all-time high level of spending this year, with spending reaching $52.8 billion barely 5 months into the year. This increase in state-level spending is reflected by the small increase in government spending (about 3%). With the increase in spending, price levels rise, simultaneously diluting the purchasing power of residents in the state. Ocean County—where Toms River is located—is among the counties with the lowest household incomes in the state, making it incredibly difficult for the majority of residents to keep up with rising prices. Pressures such as this one lead to a decrease in traffic in once-busy stores, such as the Stop & Shop on Rt. 9—closing in the spring of this year.

The desirability of retail locations around Hooper Ave and other prominent areas in Toms River has been the nail in the coffin for many businesses. David Ricardo, British economist and politician in the late 18th to early 19th century, dictates in his theory of rent that rent rises with the greater appeal of the land. Granted, this theory is centuries old and refers to the price of farmland, but it still accurately accounts for how rent works today. Think about it: the more someone wants an item (or a building to rent), the more they are willing to pay for it. So, in a prominent location, that may or may not assist in generating foot traffic, the rent will be much higher than it would be in a remote location that the average Toms River citizen would, most likely, not pass on their way to work.

This highly priced rent, partnered with volatile input costs, makes it incredibly difficult for business owners to prosper in these areas. After my conversation with Melissa Fernandez, Executive Director of the Business Improvement District in Toms River, she stated that she has seen the rate of input costs rise faster than revenues among these areas in Toms River. Most notably being the rising costs of electricity, as Fernandez mentioned how electric costs have increased approximately 50%. Now, of course, the owners of these properties are not willing to pay these expenses out of their own pocket, so they pass those expenses down to the renters
of the properties (business owners), who crumble at the weight of those additional expenses.

Arguably, the most impactful event within the last decade was the COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic amplified the use of social media by about 20%, and with that came the decline of
personal interaction. Since this global tragedy, businesses have had to adapt to the modern era of technology, creating social media advertising. Marketing plays an even bigger role in business promotion than the majority may realize, as it constantly reminds a consumer to think of a certain brand or business when faced with an issue they can solve. A prominent example of the effect of not adapting to this would be Stop & Shop. In the fiscal year of 2023, Stop & Shop reportedly spent only $24 million on advertisements, which initiated the beginning of the consistent decrease in advertising expenditures, as it was an 11% decrease from the previous year. Conversely, Walmart spent over $4.1 billion on advertising in the same year and has been consistently growing, climbing to over $5 billion in the most recent year. Factors such as this are a key contributor to why businesses such as Stop & Shop are closing down in Toms River, and
how businesses such as Walmart are prospering.

Now, the most salient factor, in my opinion, to the widespread retail closings around Toms River is the large (and growing) retiree population, and many people fail to see the connection
between that and economic pressures (whether it be inflationary or recessionary). It is commonly known that we have been experiencing inflationary pressures throughout the country within the last decade, but with this rise in price levels comes a decrease in demand for goods since the dollar now has less purchasing power. The U.S. Census Bureau’s data details that Ocean County has the second-highest retiree population in all of NJ. With the second largest retiree population in all of NJ, Ocean County faces a decline in foot traffic among prominent retail locations. This decline in foot traffic, partnered with the erosion of purchasing power (in
which the effects are amplified on someone living on a fixed income) leads to businesses struggling to sell products to a demographic that can not afford them, in a time when a business can not afford to lower prices. This leaves Toms River businesses, among many throughout Ocean County, that are unfortunately stuck between dealing with inflationary pressures and losing customers due to the area’s demographic.

The lost business that retailers face as a result of all of these factors simultaneously boosts sales of cheaper and more conveniently located competitors. So as we unfortunately have to see the end to some businesses in Toms River (such as the Stop & Shop on Route 9, the Rite Aid on Route 37, or the TGI Fridays on Hooper Avenue), we can simultaneously witness the performance “boom” of said competitors (such as the Aldi on Routes 37 and 70 and the Walmart on Route 37).

Even if you were not asking “Why?”, this pattern would have started to become harder to ignore. But, as Alexander Graham Bell said, when one door closes, another door opens. In this case, it’s a little more literal than others. Maybe the new restaurant opening in place of TGI Fridays will serve the community better than its predecessor; maybe the orthopedics store replacing the Rite Aid will do the same. Because in the end, these closures are not just “businesses shutting down”; they are indicators of a broader economic transition actively reshaping the economic landscape of Toms River.

Works Cited
Navarro, J. G. “Walmart: AD Spending 2013–2025.” Statista, 13 Apr. 2026,
statista.com/statistics/622029/walmart-ad-spend/.
“New Jersey Spending Profile.” USAspending.Gov,
usaspending.gov/state/new-jersey/2025. Accessed 31 May 2026.
“Place Rankings—Data Commons.” Data Commons,
datacommons.org/ranking/Median_Income_Household/County/geoId/34?h=geoId%2F34019&u
nit=%24. Accessed 31 May 2026.
Slotta, Daniel. “Topic: Social Media Use during Coronavirus (COVID-19) Worldwide.” Statista,
17 Dec. 2025,
statista.com/topics/7863/social-media-use-during-coronavirus-covid-19-worldwide/?srsltid=
AfmBOopet2qx6ZI-Y7Wb9FrKCH10fy3o64bZl4msF-NXwEr8GoghoVFK#editorsPicks.
Stacker. “Counties with the Most Seniors in New Jersey.” Stacker, 30 Aug. 2022,
stacker.com/stories/new-jersey/counties-most-seniors-new-jersey.
“Stop & Shop Names Curiosity Creative Agency of Record.” Ad Age, a Crain Family Brand, 16
May 2024, adage.com/article/agency-news/stop-shop-names-curiosity-creative-aor/2560566/.