Hurricane Predictions Get Worse, Could Be Harshest Since Sandy Hit N.J.

Forecasters now expect an even stronger Atlantic hurricane season than originally predicted, the worst since Superstorm Sandy hit New Jersey in 2012.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made such a prediction in its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, saying there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, among which five to eight are expected to become hurricanes and two to four are expected to become major hurricanes.

The NOAA said there is a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, decreasing the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

The initial outlook called for 10 to 16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 total storms and 10 hurricanes. Sandy produced 115 mph winds and tore up much of the shoreline, particularly in New Jersey.

Forecasters didn't rule out a similar occurrence. The weather has already been erratic this summer, and seven straight days of possible thunderstorms are predicted for the next week.

Read more: 7 Straight Days Of Possible N.J. Thunderstorms As Heat Wave Rolls In

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a release.

However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active, he said.

To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico) and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).

As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.