New Mexico 2018 Midterm Election: Heinrich, Lujan Grisham Win

ALBUQUERQUE, NM — Democrats performed well throughout New Mexico on Tuesday, with incumbent U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich winning re-election, Michelle Lujan Grisham winning decisively and two of the state's three House seats also going blue. But one House race remains too close to call, with Republican Yvette Herrell leading Democrat Xochitl Torres Small by just 1 percentage point.

While the "blue wave" and anti-Trump sentiment failed to give Democrats decisive control of Congress, it did give them enough of a boost to take the U.S. House for the first time in eight years. In New Mexico, the wave led to a near-sweep in the biggest races, with former state Democratic Party Chairwoman Debra Haaland and U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan both emerging victorious.

Voter turnout was high in the state. Voters in Bernalillo County were showing up in droves at the polls, The Albuquerque Journal reported, and the county clerk expected about a 50 percent turnout. Four years ago, turnout was just 39 percent.

That aligned well with what social media users have reported. Twitter user @PriestOutWest posted photos of long lines at the University of New Mexico winding its way through the student union building as hordes of young people flocked to the polls.

The high turnout numbers come amid a much-anticipated gubernatorial race U.S. Reps. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, and Steve Pearce, a Republican. Incumbent Republican Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited, opening the door for Democrats to swoop in and flip the seat from red to blue.

The Senate race featured Heinrich, the incumbent Democrat, squaring off against Republican Mick Rich and former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian who gained national notoriety for his 2016 presidential bid. Heinrich, who has held the Senate seat since 2013, started the night off cruising to re-election.

In the House, all three of the state's seats were up for grabs and Democrats went into the night eyeing the 2nd District, which they saw as a golden opportunity for a pickup. The incumbent Republican Rep. Pearce ran for governor, and Republicans hoped Herrell could fend off Torres Small.

Meanwhile, longtime Democratic appeals court Judge Michael Vigil was leading incumbent Republican Justice Gary Clingman in this year's lone state Supreme Court election. Clingman was appointed this year.

Voters will also cast ballots on six statewide measures — two amendments to the state Constitution and four bond questions, including spending on education and seniors.

Governor

New Mexico has had a divided government since 2011 with Democrats controlling both chambers of the state Legislature and Republican Gov. Susana Martinez controlling the executive office. Term limits opened the door for Democrats to change that this year.

Lujan Grisham defeated Pearce Tuesday to flip the seat from red to blue, and that means she'll have a say in redrawing the state's congressional maps following the 2020 census.

The result wasn't surprising — Lujan Grisham was seen as the front-runner heading into Election Day. The state backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, then swung for fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats have also controlled the state's Senate seats since 2006.

The gurus at the election tracking site FiveThirtyEight gave Lujan Grisham a 92 percent chance to win and said the race would likely swing for the Democrats. According to RealClearPolitics, Lujan Grisham was up by an average of 8 points in the polls, with the most recent showing her up by 10. Furthermore, the experts at the Cook Political Report said the race leaned Democratic.

U.S. Senate

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich entered Tuesday as a heavy favorite, and it would've been a major upset had he lost. FiveThirtyEight gave Heinrich a 99.6 percent chance of winning compared to just 0.4 percent for Rich, a supporter of President Donald Trump and member of the state Labor Industrial Commission.

According to RealClearPolitics, Heinrich was up in the polls by an average of 17 points, with the latest poll showing him up by 20 points. The Cook Political Report, furthermore, called the race solidly Democratic.

U.S. House

Democrats controlled two of the state's three congressional seats heading into the night and hoped to make it a sweep Tuesday.

1st District

With Lujan Grisham running for governor, Democrats hoped former state Democratic Party Chairwoman Debra Haaland could keep the seat out of the hands of Republican former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. Haaland was considered a virtual lock to win, and she did with 59 percent of the vote.

The district, located in the north-central part of the state is solidly blue, voting for Democrats by at least 7 percentage points in the last two presidential elections. FiveThirtyEight gave Haaland a 99.3 percent chance to win and polls showed Haaland leading by 8-12 points, according to RealClearPolitics. To boot, the Cook Political Report labeled the race solidly Democratic.

2nd District

The 2nd District battle was the race to watch, and it did not disappoint. Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce represented the district from 2003-09 and was elected again in 2010. But he ran for governor, leaving open a seat in a district that voted for Trump, Mitt Romney and John McCain in each of the last three presidential elections.

At first glance, it appeared Herrell had an advantage over Democratic opponent Xochitl Torres Small, an attorney who once worked as a field representative for Sen. Tom Udall and as a judicial law clerk for a federal judge. The Cook Partisan Voter Index showed the district voted for Republican presidential candidates in the last two elections by at least 6 points.

But polls showed Herrell up by an average of just 1.8 points, according to RealClearPolitics. One showed them tied and the latest showed Herrell leading by a single point.

Both FiveThirtyEight and The Cook Political Report labeled the race a toss-up, and the former even gave Torres Small a 52 percent shot to win.

As of Wednesday morning, Herrell had secured 51 percent of the vote to Small's 50 percent with 95 percent of precincts reporting. The race was too close to call.

On The Issues

Herrell

Herrell campaigned on defunding Planned Parenthood, enforcing immigration laws and reducing the size and scope of the government, according to Ballotpedia. Her campaign website says she is anti-abortion and supported Trump from the first day of his campaign.

Herrell says she is a member of the NRA and will defend the right to bear arms.

Torres Small

Torres Small is campaigning on expanding access to quality, affordable health care, including by taking on drug companies to lower the costs of prescriptions. She wants to increase funding for public schools and will fight for a living wage, according to her campaign website.

While opposed to building a U.S.-Mexico border wall, Torres Small says she supports strong borders to keep out traffickers and violent criminals. She also supports a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and other immigrants without criminal records.

District 3

In the 3rd District, incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan cruised to victory, as expected, over Republican Jerald Steve McFall and Libertarian Christopher Manning. Lujan has held the seat, located in the northern part of the state, since 2008. The Cook Partisan Voter Index showed the district voted for Democrats in the last two presidential elections by at least 8 points.

Indeed, FiveThirtyEight gave Lujan a 99.9 percent chance of winning and The Cook Political Report labeled the race solidly Democratic.

State Supreme Court

Justice Gary Clingman, a Republican from Hobbs who was appointed by Gov. Martinez this year, must be re-elected by voters and will face Democrat Michael Vigil, a judge on the state appeals court. Clingman has been endorsed by the Albuquerque Journal Editorial Board despite a "troubling incident" from his past surfacing.

Clingman was fired nearly 40 years ago from the Odessa police department over his handling of a prisoner. In light of that news, a new poll from the newspaper showed Vigil had a comfortable lead over Clingman, with 53 percent of likely voters saying they'd cast their ballots for Vigil.

Ballot Measures

Constitutional Amendments

Two constitutional amendments were on the ballot this year and both passed. The first allows state lawmakers to pass legislation setting the appeals process form probate courts and other lesser courts to higher courts. It also allows state lawmakers to determine which cases originating in lesser courts and tribunals fall under the jurisdiction of district courts.

The second amendment to the constitution establishes a seven-member state ethics panel that will probe potential ethical violations of state officials, executive and legislative workers, candidates and lobbyists, among others. New Mexico was one of seven states without a state ethics commission.

Bond Questions

Question A

Voters supported authorizing the sale of more than $10 million in bonds for senior citizen facilities. This includes bringing buildings up to code and buying new equipment and vehicles.

Question B

Voters supported selling $12.9 million in bonds to support libraries, including for print, non-print, and electronic resources, broadband internet equipment, and even furniture.

Question C

Voters supported authorizing the sale of $6.1 million in bonds to buy school buses and equip them with air conditioning.

Question D

Voters supported authorizing the sale of $136 million in bonds for institutions of higher education, special schools and tribal schools. Projects include infrastructure improvements, renovations and the planning and building of new structures.

State Executives

Democrats swept the state executive positions Tuesday for attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, public lands commissioner, public education commissioner and public regulation commissioner.

State Attorney General Hector Balderas, a Democrat, won a second term over Republican immigration attorney Michael Hendricks and Libertarian attorney A. Blair Dunn, who works at a law firm that represents farmers, ranchers and businesses.

Here are the other winners:

Maggie Toulouse Oliver

Brian Colon

Tim Eichenberg

Stephanie Garcia Richard

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