NYC Faces Flooding Threat Before Summer Heat Returns: See Timing

NEW YORK CITY — A slow-moving storm system is bringing soaking rain showers and thunderstorms to the New York City metro area, triggering a Flood Watch alert from the National Weather Service to start the week.

Periods of rain are expected throughout the day Monday and Tuesday, with some thunderstorms capable of producing heavy downpours, according to the National Weather Service.

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Forecasters expect up to an inch of rain during the day Monday, with additional rainfall Monday night, and possible flash flooding.

"Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms through tonight will likely produce significant total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 inches or more," National Weather Service forecasters said. "Hourly rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible. These conditions could lead to flash flooding."

The Flood Watch will be in effect through 6 a.m. on Tuesday.

According to AccuWeather forecasters, New York City is experiencing a wave of "training storms," which repeatedly track over the same areas, increasing the risk of flash flooding.

"When we talk about 'training storms,' think of it like train cars all passing over the same track. As one storm cell moves through, another forms right behind it and follows the same path," Tyler Roys, an AccuWeather meteorologist, said. "Instead of rain spreading out and moving on, the same areas keep getting hit over and over and you can see dramatic differences in rain amounts in a small area. That's when you get extreme rainfall totals in a short time, and it's one of the biggest drivers of flash flooding."

Monday's high will struggle to reach 72 degrees under cloudy skies, while northeast winds around 10 mph could gust up to 21 mph. The wet weather begins to ease Tuesday, though the city isn't expected to dry out completely.

There's a 30 percent chance of showers before 2 p.m. Tuesday, followed by a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain cool for early July, with a high near 72 degrees.

By Wednesday, sunshine returns and temperatures rebound into the low 80s. The warming trend continues through the rest of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs climbing to 85 degrees Thursday before nearing 90 degrees on Friday.

However, the hotter weather could come with another round of unsettled conditions for the Big Apple. Forecasters are calling for a 40 percent chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Friday.

Here's the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.

Monday: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New rainfall amounts between three-quarters and one inch possible.

Monday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 66. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday: A chance of showers before 2 p.m., then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 5 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 72. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Tuesday night: A slight chance of showers between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Thursday night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Friday night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

For questions, email Miranda.Levingston@Patch.com.