Thunderstorms Predicted: Hazardous Outlook For Mid-Hudson

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous outlook for Dutchess and Ulster counties; plus after more than 2 inches fell in the region, a flood warning is in effect for Esopus Creek.

More rain is in the forecast.

Across east central and eastern New York, northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east and southern Vermont, a potent upper-level low pressure system could support scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon. The probability for widespread hazards as a result of these storms is low.

The NWS said it would continue to monitor trends as storms develop in the afternoon.

The service issued a flood warning Monday morning for Esopus Creek at Cold Brook, saying that at 11.0 feet, flood stage, water would begin to overflow the banks above Ashokan Reservoir, but with predicted minor flooding and little damage.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service published rain reports from Orange County for the 72 hours ending at 9:30 p.m. Sunday:

• MIDDLETOWN 2.20 inches
• MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 1.81
• PORT JERVIS 1.76
• CHESTER 1.52
• MIDDLETOWN 1.47
• VAILS GATE 1.45
• MONTGOMERY 1.32
• WALDEN 1.32
• MONTGOMERY 1.27
• HARRIMAN 1.26

Rain is what's in the forecast, and a continuation of chilly temperatures.

"The weather pattern shaping up for the first week of May is one that does not hold out much hope for warm weather fans across the Upper Midwest and Northeast," said Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist.

Here is the daily forecast based on Poughkeepsie:

• Monday - A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 3pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tonight - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tuesday - Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tuesday Night - Scattered showers, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Wednesday - Showers, mainly after 8am. High near 52. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Wednesday Night - Showers, mainly before 8pm. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• Thursday - Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Thursday Night - Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
• Friday - A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Friday Night - A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.