NYC Didn’t Lose 46,000 Jobs, Economist Says

NEW YORK, NY— New York City did not lose 46,000 jobs last year, according to a new economic analysis that argues a state labor data revision created a misleading picture of the city’s economy.

Economist James Parrott said the New York State Department of Labor administratively reassigned roughly 46,000 home health care jobs from New York City to other regions across the state during its annual benchmark revision released April 2.

The adjustment, Parrott said, reflected a paperwork correction — not actual layoffs or companies relocating workers out of the city.

“To be clear, the NYSDOL data does not reflect anyone losing their job or any job being physically moved elsewhere in the state,” Parrott wrote in a briefing paper released through the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School.

The annual benchmark revision typically aligns monthly employment estimates with unemployment insurance tax records submitted by employers.

But Parrott said this year’s revision introduced what he called an “unprecedented administrative change” tied to New York’s home care system.

The issue traces back to rapid growth in home health care jobs beginning in 2021, after New York expanded Medicaid rules allowing relatives and friends to receive payment for caring for elderly and disabled residents at home.

As hundreds of social service agencies processed those workers, labor officials struggled to accurately track where jobs were based.

Parrott said the Labor Department overstated the number of home care jobs located in New York City while undercounting positions elsewhere in the state. He said officials partially corrected the error during the benchmark revision but did so by showing a sudden one-month drop of 46,000 jobs in April 2025.

That adjustment, he argued, distorted broader employment trends and fueled confusion about the city’s economy.

“And this has led some observers to believe that tens of thousands of New York City jobs have been lost or were relocated outside of the city,” Parrott wrote.

While the Adams Administration formally balanced the current budget, the Comptroller argues that the City has increasingly relied on temporary measures and accounting maneuvers rather than addressing long-term spending pressures.

Those tactics included one-time savings from shifting costs between fiscal years, reducing prior-year liabilities, and delaying recognition of major expenses.

As federal pandemic aid disappears and Washington cuts funding for social programs, those stopgap measures are becoming harder to sustain.

At the same time, many of the City’s largest recurring expenses continue to be significantly under-budgeted.

The Comptroller estimates billions of dollars in annual shortfalls tied to programs and services the City already knows it will have to fund. Among the biggest pressures are rental assistance programs, shelter operations, overtime spending, public assistance, special education due-process cases, and child care and early education programs.

Rental assistance alone is projected to require nearly $800 million more in the fiscal year 2026 than currently budgeted, rising to roughly $2 billion in later years.

Projected NYC Budget Gaps From The Comptroller

• FY2026: $2.2 billion
• FY2027: $10.4 billion
• FY2028: $13.2 billion
• FY2029: $12.4 billion

These mounting obligations are colliding with slower economic growth and uncertainty tied to federal policy changes, including cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and housing assistance programs.

The result is a widening gap between expected revenues and actual spending needs.

Parrott said his forthcoming report will outline a correction method designed to smooth the employment trend between 2022 and 2025 and provide what he described as a more accurate measure of the city’s labor market.

“In the 35 years I have been closely analyzing NYC employment trends, I have never seen an annual benchmark adjustment as misleading and problematic as this year’s,” Parrott wrote.

The revised analysis argues job growth in New York City slowed over the past year but remained stronger than national growth rates.