NYC Didn’t Lose 46,000 Jobs, Economist Says

NEW YORK, NY— New York City did not lose 46,000 jobs last year, according to a new economic analysis that argues a state labor data revision created a misleading picture of the city’s economy.

In a briefing paper released through the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School, economist James Parrottsaid the New York State Department of Labor administratively reassigned roughly 46,000 home health care jobs from New York City to other regions during its annual benchmark revision released April 2.

Parrott said the change reflected a correction in how home care jobs were geographically classified rather than widespread layoffs or workers physically leaving the city.

“To be clear, the NYSDOL data does not reflect anyone losing their job or any job being physically moved elsewhere in the state,” Parrott wrote.

The department’s Current Employment Statistics program produces monthly estimates of nonfarm employment, hours and earnings using surveys from more than 15,400 businesses statewide. The data reflects jobs by place of work rather than where employees live and excludes self-employed workers, unpaid family workers and private household employees.

The estimates are revised annually through a benchmark process that aligns survey results with unemployment insurance tax records submitted by employers. Economists often view the revisions as more accurate because they incorporate broader administrative records, but the system still depends on how employers classify and report worksites.

Benchmark revisions occur annually and align monthly estimates with unemployment insurance tax records submitted by employers.

Parrott argued this year’s revision introduced what he called an “unprecedented administrative change” tied to New York’s rapidly expanding home care workforce.

He traced the issue to Medicaid policy changes beginning in 2021 that allowed relatives and friends to receive payment for caring for elderly and disabled residents at home. As social service agencies processed a surge of workers, Parrott said, labor officials faced challenges accurately assigning where those jobs were located.

According to Parrott, the department initially overstated the number of home health care jobs based in New York City while undercounting positions elsewhere in the state. He said the benchmark revision partially corrected the imbalance by showing a one-month decline of 46,000 city jobs in April 2025.

“And this has led some observers to believe that tens of thousands of New York City jobs have been lost or were relocated outside of the city,” Parrott wrote.

He traced the issue to Medicaid policy changes beginning in 2021 that allowed relatives and friends to receive payment for caring for elderly and disabled residents at home. As thousands of workers entered the system through social service agencies operating across multiple regions, assigning those jobs geographically became more difficult.

Projected NYC Budget Gaps From The Comptroller

• FY2026: $2.2 billion
• FY2027: $10.4 billion
• FY2028: $13.2 billion
• FY2029: $12.4 billion

According to Parrott, the state initially overstated the number of home health care jobs based in New York City while undercounting positions elsewhere. He said the benchmark revision partially corrected the imbalance by showing a one-month decline of 46,000 city jobs in April 2025.

“And this has led some observers to believe that tens of thousands of New York City jobs have been lost or were relocated outside of the city,” Parrott wrote.

The Labor Department’s published estimates reflect what employers report through those surveys and administrative filings. When employers revise or reclassify worksite locations, the state adjusts the data accordingly.

Parrott said a forthcoming report will propose a revised method to smooth employment trends between 2022 and 2025 and provide what he described as a more accurate picture of the city’s labor market.

“In the 35 years I have been closely analyzing NYC employment trends, I have never seen an annual benchmark adjustment as misleading and problematic as this year’s,” Parrott wrote.

Despite the disputed revision, Parrott said New York City’s job growth slowed over the past year but continued to outpace national growth rates.