What NYC's Reopening Will Look Like

NEW YORK CITY — New York City is reopening from a long and dark year under the shadow of coronavirus, at long last.

But the slowing pace of vaccinations could mean the promised "Summer of New York City" will take a different shape for city dwellers, depending on whether or not they're vaccinated.

Vaccination against COVID-19 is a key part of any reopening plan, but the pace of inoculations has dramatically slowed in recent weeks. Since the peak of vaccinations less than a month ago, the daily number of vaccine doses has dropped by 51 percent, according to city data.

"Even though we’ve seen some slowdown, there’s still a lot of people coming in to get vaccinated,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said recently.

Top officials — most prominently Gov. Andrew Cuomo — are already proposing or encouraging measures that keep unvaccinated New Yorkers from fully experiencing a total reopening.

Cuomo and de Blasio alike are weighing incentives to boost vaccinations or innovative programs to kick-start long-dormant sectors like the arts.

Here's where everything stands as the city prepares for reopening.

Reopening confusion

Let's get this out of the way.

New York City will fully July 1. Or maybe earlier on May 19.

The harmful rivalry between Cuomo and de Blasio has effectively given the city two reopening dates.

First, de Blasio announced he wanted to fully reopen the city on July 1. He acknowledged the deadline was more of a goal, given his limited authority to lift COVID-19 restrictions.

But Hizzoner, who has lately embraced his role as the Big Apple's biggest cheerleader, didn't let that stop him from trying to drum up excitement and actions to usher in a safe reopening.

Cuomo wasn't pleased.

The governor first poo-pooed de Blasio's announcement, then he unveiled an opening date of his own: May 19.

Most capacity limitations will lift that day, to be replaced by a requirement that New York City businesses, museums, offices, restaurants and other places adhere to a CDC-mandated 6-foot social distancing limit, Cuomo said.

The 6-foot limit arguably makes it a reopening in name only, but Cuomo quickly rolled out exceptions for people who are fully vaccinated. Life will return to normal for the vaccinated, while those without shots could still have restrictions, he said.

“It's an incentive to be vaccinated,” he said. “So six feet CDC requirement, unless it is organized around vaccinations or negative test results.”

While vaccinations are shaping up to be all-important, their flagging pace could be a sign many New Yorkers will be left out of the full reopening.

Vaccination slowdown

New York City is nearing its 22nd week of an unprecedented vaccination campaign.

Nearly 7 million doses of vaccine have gone into arms, with at least 55 percent of adult New Yorkers receiving at least one shot.

The campaign itself started slow, with demand far outpacing supply. But it ramped up to the point that by the 17th week in early April the city was doling out 96,000 doses a day on average, according to data.

The pace of vaccination since then has dropped steadily. Last week — the campaign's 20th — the city averaged 47,000 doses a day.

And it appears the daily rate will be even lower when this week ends.

The slowdown raises doubts the city will reach the 80 percent vaccination rate experts say is necessary for herd immunity — the point where enough of a population is immune to a disease, makes it difficult to spread and provides protection to those who aren't immune.

A recent New York Times story outlined wider fears the nation as a whole won't reach that level. De Blasio, when recently asked about herd immunity in the city, said it's long been known that COVID-19 could become a seasonal issue like the flu.

"Functional immunity" is what the city is aiming for, he said.

"I'm looking for a situation where enough people are vaccinated to keep the numbers down in terms of COVID, help us come back fully," he said.

The city may not reach the epidemiological definition of herd immunity, but vaccinations can still allow it to open up, Dave Chokshi, the city's health commissioner, said.

"We shouldn't let that terminology distract us from the big picture here, which is that higher levels of population immunity or, what some people term, community immunity will still have major benefits, and in fact, we're seeing that in New York City even today, in terms of reducing infections and particularly with respect to decreasing severe disease that causes hospitalizations and deaths," Chokshi said.

Incentives, restrictions

The not-quite-high-enough level of vaccinations makes a two-tiered reopening increasingly likely for parts of New York City.

Cuomo — along help from the Yankees and Mets — has already set the groundwork for how that could look.

The governor recently announced that baseball games will reopen at 100 percent capacity for fully vaccinated New Yorkers. But he also noted that unvaccinated baseball fans can still attend games, just at 33 percent capacity.

How it will work is Yankee Stadium and Citi Field will set up separate sections — one literally packed with fully vaccinated fans, the other spread out and under classic coronavirus restrictions for those who are unvaccinated.

"For baseball reopening May 19th two different categories: not Yankees, Mets. Vaccinated, unvaccinated," he said. "Vaccinated people, normal capacity, normal seating for people who are vaccinated. Sit next to each other in a section, sit next to your friends, sit next to your family. Just normal capacity, normal seating. Vaccinated families who have a child 16 under who's not eligible, that child can be seated with the family. We ask them to wear masks, but you attend the ball game like you attended the ball game two years ago. For unvaccinated people the 6-foot distancing applies with masks and that comes out to roughly 33 percent in those sections, capacity for unvaccinated people."

Cuomo said vaccinated fans can you the state's "Excelsior Pass" — essentially a "vaccine passport" that shows proof of vaccination — to attend games.

His office later clarified the system will work for all outdoor sports, performing arts and live entertainment and horse and auto racing venues.

Likewise, Cuomo said Broadway's Sept. 14 reopening rules allow theaters to determine their own entry requirements. Theaters can operate at 100 percent capacity for fully vaccinated crowds, but must adhere to the 6-foot social distancing limit for those that aren't, he said.

The chance to attend live events and visit places without restrictions could be incentive enough for many New Yorkers to get vaccinated, but other more concrete incentives are in the works.

The Yankees and Mets are offering free tickets for fans who get vaccinations in their ballparks , for example.

De Blasio said the city is working on a suite of incentives as well to be unveiled soon.

"We're nailing down the final details, but you're going to be seeing a lot more," he said. "We know there's a lot of places where we could create really exciting opportunities. I mean, the other day, what we did with the Museum of Natural History is that is the shape of things to come ... Getting vaccinated under the blue whale and then getting four free admissions to the museum.

"We're going to be working across the spectrum, sports teams, entertainment venues, restaurants. We're going to be looking do incentives, just like that to give people great opportunities when they get vaccinated."