Hurricane Season Kicks Off: See What's In Store

LONG ISLAND, NY — Monday marked the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season — and forecasters are predicting less storms than usual in the coming months.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a "below-normal hurricane season" for the Atlantic basin this year.

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NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, NOAA said.

In addition, NOAA is forecasting a total of 8 to 14 named storms — with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes — with winds of 74 mph or higher — including 1 to 3 major hurricanes, Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher, officials said.

NOAA has a 70 percent confidence in the ranges — an average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, NOAA said.

"With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. "Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible."

But residents should still be prepared, the National Weather Service told Patch.

According to Dominic Ramunni, meteorologist with the NWS in Upton, overall, forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season across the Atlantic basic, meaning a likelihood of a fewer total number of storms relative to the historical average.

This year's predicted 8 to 14 named storms, he said, "is our best guess. We might get 7 or we might get 16. We put out these outlooks ahead of time to give people a little insight as to what is expected — and to discuss hurricane preparedness. Because it doesn't matter if we get 4 or 40 storms — if 40 storms form out to sea, it doesn't matter. But one storm that makes landfall will make it a devastating season. It only takes one to devastate a community."

Overall, forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season based on El Nino, forming in the Pacific, which helps to suppress storms in the Atlantic basic, Ramunni said.

He urged residents to be prepared. "It's not like we're in the clear here," he said, adding that the forecast so far is "broad brush strokes. "We'll see."

Key factors driving NOAA’s forecast, a release said, include competing factors.

"El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average," NOAA said. "El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year."

Officials urged continued caution.

"Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. "That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."