Strong El Niño Signals Snowy Winter Ahead In NY: See Forecast

NEW YORK — New Yorkers could be in for a snowy winter due to a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, according to a new long-range forecast.

AccuWeather and other long-range weather prediction services call for a snowier and colder winter ahead with the arrival of El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. El Niño can have a range of effects, from heavy precipitation in some parts of the world and droughts in others, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to AccuWeather's 2023 to 2024 winter outlook, there could be multiple nor'easters to the state in January and February, dumping inches of snow compared to the below-average amounts that the majority of New York saw over the relatively weak 2022 to 2023 winter.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted.

AccuWeather long-range meteorologists are predicting 18 to 26 inches in New York City and 16 to 24 inches in Philadelphia in total for winter 2023/24, which is around the historical average but far higher than last year's totals.

Compare this to last winter, when communities including Long Island saw "a very small amount of snow," said John Murray, meteorologist with the National Weather Office at Upton said.

"An early-season nor'easter can't be ruled out either as the ingredients for a snowstorm may come together sometime in November," AccuWeather continued.

During El Niño winters, warm water moves closer to the west coast of South America, pushing the Pacific jet stream farther north. That trend allows moist air to enter the Southeast bringing heavy rain. When those storms move into the colder climate in the Northeast, the rain can turn to snow.

The AccuWeather prediction somewhat aligns with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which as of this week was forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures for part of the state in December, January and February. Those three months are leaning towards seeing above-normal precipitation, according to the weather service.

Murray agreed that according to the CPC, above-normal levels of precipitation are also expected this winter for Long Island.

And, the Farmer's Almanac said in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that the Northeast region is in for plenty of winter rain, sleet, and snow.

"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," said the Farmers' Almanac.