2018 Hurricane Forecasts, Potential Hudson Valley Impact Released

Last September hurricanes leveled Puerto Rico, wrought widespread damage in Florida and Georgia, flooded parts of Texas that trapped residents in their cars and homes, and sent refugees fleeing north. Now two new hurricane forecasts say that the Atlantic Coast – and potentially the Hudson Valley – could have a damaging storm season in 2018.

A report by Colorado State University researchers says the number of named storms and hurricanes will likely be above historical averages.

AccuWeather forecasters, meanwhile, are predicting a near normal to slightly above-normal year with between 12 to 15 tropical storms.

Of those storms, 6 to 8 are forecast to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 are forecast to become major hurricanes.
"Last year we had 17 tropical storms. This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

2017 was a devastating hurricane season with at least four deadly named systems that made landfall.

The last major hurricanes to affect the Hudson Valley were the 2012 Sandy and 2011 Irene storms. Irene had weakened to a tropical storm by the time it reached the Hudson Valley, but it still left thousands of people without power, some of them for weeks, and its extraordinarily heavy rains caused flood damage that is still being repaired.

Superstorm Sandy killed four people in the lower Hudson Valley and 43 people in New York City. It caused billions of dollars worth of damage.

The CSU study, released online and by The Weather Channel, says seven hurricanes – three of them major – and 14 named storms are expected this season along the Atlantic Coast, according to the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project.

This study says the number is above the 30-year average of six hurricanes - two of them major - and 12 named storms. The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.

"We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above average activity," researchers said in the report, noting that western tropical Atlantic is "anomalously" warm right now.
"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Hurricanes typically form over warmer water – and usually over tropical oceans, where warm water and air interact to create these storms.

Last year, 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes were reported in the United States – ranking it with 1936 as the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851.

Image via Shutterstock/NASA