Brace Yourself, NC: NOAA Predicts Strong 2020 Hurricane Season

NORTH CAROLINA—The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that weather researchers believe there will be more hurricanes in 2020 than during an average hurricane season on top of the coronavirus outbreak that first responders already have to worry about.

"NOAA's outlook for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that an above normal season is most likely with a possibility of that season being extremely active," acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D told reporters during a conference call.

Current and predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a higher likelihood — a 60 percent chance — of an above normal season. Forecasters believe there is only a 30 percent chance of a normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season.

While Arthur already became the first named storm to form this year, the peak months of hurricane season run from August through October.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA predicted with 70 percent certainty there will be 13 to 19 named storms with top winds of at least 39 mph. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 mph, including three to six major hurricanes of category 3 and higher with top winds of at least 111 mph, according to Jacobs.

In April, Colorado State University meteorologists predicted the 2020 hurricane season could bring 16 named storms — four more than the average.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said 2020 would be the fifth consecutive above normal season but it's too soon to say how the season will compare to the record 2005 season that brought 27 named storms.

"At this time our ranges are well below what we saw in that record 2005 season, "he said. "This is the time to start getting prepared. Don't worry what some other seasons did. Make sure you know what to do this season.

Officials cautioned the prediction does not distinguish between storms that make landfall and those that remain at sea.

The hurricane season outlook is based on the latest weather and climate models as well as observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

Original story by Paul Scicchitano, Patch staff