Holiday Weather Forecast, Chance Of White Christmas In NC?

CHARLOTTE, NC — It's a fairly safe bet that some parts of the country will get snow for Christmas. If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, here's what history says about the chances of measurable snow in North Carolina.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has mapped out which states, historically, have the best probability of a white Christmas. And the National Weather Service has its Dec. 25 forecast out, which calls for mostly sunny skies in the Charlotte-metro region, with a high temperature of 53 degrees. After a week of highs in the mid to high 50s, so not good odds of a snowy Christmas here.

Here in North Carolina, history is not on our side. The greatest chance you will see snow for the holiday will be found on Mount Mitchell, where there is a 41 percent probability of snow on Christmas Day, according to NOAA.

NOAA's "Historical Probability of a White Christmas" map shows the climatological probability of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 in the contiguous United States. See the interactive map for a better idea of the historical probability of measurable snow in North Carolina cities.

Here's the probability of measurable snow in parts of the Tar Heel State on Dec. 25, according to NOAA:

• Boone: 19 percent
• Asheville: 7 percent
• Raleigh: 3 percent
• Greensboro: 3 percent
• Charlotte: 2 percent
• Wilmington: 1 percent
• Fayetteville: 0 percent

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Of course, nothing beats the actual weather forecast to predict whether it will be snowy at Christmastime. The map shows only the climatological probability of a white Christmas.

"The conditions this year may vary widely from these probabilities because the weather patterns present will determine if there is snow on the ground or if snow will fall on Christmas Day," NOAA said. "These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely."

Based on that, if you're set on snow at Christmas, your best bets are in most of Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Aspen, Colorado, is one of about a dozen places that boast a 100 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

Some southern states and cities almost never get a white Christmas, though New Orleans got its first white Christmas in 50 years in a 2004 Christmas Eve snowstorm that also brought measurable snow to Brownsville, Texas, and its twin city of Matamoros, Mexico. In 1989, parts of Florida and North Carolina were walloped with 15 inches of snow just before Christmas.

History shows there's a less than 10 percent chance those states will see measurable snow on Christmas this year.

NOAA based its map on the 1981–2010 Climate Normals, which are the latest three-decade averages of several climatological measurements. As NOAA explains it, the dataset includes daily and monthly normals of temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days calculated from about 9,800 National Weather Service stations.

Here’s the National Weather Service’s forecast through Christmas Day:
Today (Dec. 19)
Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Light southeast wind.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 5am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Light northeast wind.
Thursday (Dec. 20)
Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 54. East northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers. Low around 50. East wind around 8 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Friday (Dec. 21)
Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 56. South wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Saturday (Dec. 22)
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Sunday (Dec. 23)
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Monday (Christmas Eve)
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Christmas Day (Dec. 25)
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

By the way, the idea of a white Christmas in the United States is often associated with American composer Irving Berlin's classic, "White Christmas," recorded by Bing Crosby and others. As the "White Christmas" backstory goes, the great American composer wrote "White Christmas" while saying at an inn in southern California in 1940, and reimagined the glistening tree tops and other wintery sights from his childhood in New York.

Other artists who have notably covered the timeless Christmas song include Otis Redding, The Supremes, Lady Gaga, The Drifters and Elvis Presley.

Here's the classic Bing Crosby version:

Patch editors Beth Dalbey and Deb Belt contributed

Photo via Autumn Johnson/Patch