North Carolina Hurricane Season 2017 Could Be Worse Than Usual: Forecast

CHARLOTTE, NC -- A new forecast says the 2017 hurricane season could be worse than normal — and the potential impact on North Carolina could be increasingly troublesome. Both the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service say the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, will be more active than usual, and the number of named storms and hurricanes should be higher than usual.

The report conflicts with the 2017 Atlantic forecast released last week from Colorado State University, which says the number of named storms and hurricanes will likely be below historical averages.

A total of 14 named storms — seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — are expected this season, which is higher than the 30-year average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic basin, according to The Weather Channel. It would be a slight drop from last year, when there were 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

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A forecast released May 25 by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration calls for:

• Eleven to 17 named storms – including April's Tropical Storm Arlene.
• Five to 9 of which would become hurricanes.
• Two to 4 of which would become major hurricanes.

The 30-year historical average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic Basin is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Colorado State University expects four of the 11 named storms will become hurricanes, with two likely to reach major hurricane status.

Putting it in context, however, 2016 was the costliest season since 2012, and it was the deadliest since 2008, according to forecasters.

Since 1851, North Carolina has had 83 direct hits by storms. The state is statistically overdue for a big hurricane hit, as it has a two-year average between direct hit storms, according to the State Climate Office. The last major hurricanes to strike the coast were 2011’s Category 3 Irene and 2010’s category 4 Earl.

»See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

Even if the storms don't hit directly, the rising sea levels caused by climate change could cause a devastating flooding impact, according to the NWS.

"Climate change exacerbates any flooding concerns," said Joe Miketta, meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "We could have an increase in the potential for problems."

The Weather Company increased its forecast compared to the one issued in April because of a couple of factors:

• Warmer sea-surface temperatures have been observed in the North Atlantic, which have correlated with more active seasons in the past. In addition, there are indications that further warming is likely.
• There is a reduced potential for the development and strength of El Niño later this summer.

Given the current trends, according to The Weather Channel, there is the potential for another increase with the next update in June.

"The historically strong North Atlantic blocking event in early May also suggests the possibility of continued increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies, so it would be no surprise if we increased our forecast numbers again," Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, said on the website.

The season peaks each year between mid-August and mid-October. The period is described as the “season within the season” by forecasters. This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the Category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (Category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

The CSU team has been issuing annual hurricane prediction reports since 1984 under the direction of William Gray. Gray, a notable hurricane expert, continued to work on the reports until his death last year. CSU intends to issue updates to its 2017 forecast on June 1, July 3 and Aug. 2.

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website.

To read the full 2017 Atlantic hurricane season prediction report, visit CSU online. To keep up with potential storm activity, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website. For local weather and severe weather alerts, visit the National Weather Service online.

Includes reporting by Patch Editors Deb Belt, Sherri Lonon and Tom Davis

Patch file photo