Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2018 North Carolina Forecast

With summer-like high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s next week, it sure won't feel like the beginning of autumn, but nonetheless, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter weather forecast. If you hate bundling up for several months, you’ll like what the almanac predicts.

The forecast for North Carolina calls for winter to be warmer and rainier than normal, with below-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be in early January and early February, while the best chances for snow will come in early January and early February. (Get Patch real-time email alerts for the latest news in Charlotte — or other neighborhoods. And iPhone users: Check out Patch's new app.)

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast is a stark contrast to the predictions of competing publication the Farmer’s Almanac. In August, the Farmer’s Almanac predicted North Carolina will experience a cold and soggy winter.

So, of the two almanacs, which is typically more reliable?

Both publications have been making long-term weather predictions for more than 225 years. The forecasts are created months ahead of time, using various methods.

According to a Time Magazine report, The Old Farmer's Almanac bases its predictions on a "top-secret formula" that includes using a complicated mathematical formula devised by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792. That top-secret formula uses sunspots, planetary positions and tidal patterns. The publication says it's 80 percent accurate.

Its rival, the Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1818, relies on mathematical and astronomical factors for its forecast, The Erie Times-News reports.

But don't get too excited about either forecast. Experts, including a Penn State meteorologist who has studied the reliability of the dueling forecasts, are skeptical of their accuracy.

"The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero," said Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight. "There's no proven skill, there's no technique that's agreed upon in science to be able to do that."

He also noted the forecasts use vague and imprecise terms, making it difficult to assess their true accuracy.

With reporting by Kara Seymour

Photo by Costel Slincu via Flickr

Keep up with more local news by liking Charlotte Patch on Facebook: