El Nin᷉o Could Mean Ohio Gets A Mild Winter

Mild winters are expected in Ohio and much of the Midwest this year. That's partially due to a developing El Nin᷉o, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.

El Nin᷉o is an ocean-based phenomenon, involving a warming of currents in the Pacific Ocean, NOAA said. That creates warmer air conditions throughout the U.S. The agency believes there is a 70 to 75 percent chance of El Nin᷉o developing in 2018 and early 2019.

“We expect El Nin᷉o to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nin᷉o is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

As a result, NOAA is predicting higher-than-average temperatures for much of the U.S., including Ohio, from December through February. Extreme cold may not hit the Buckeye State until late January or February.

There are other large-scale atmospheric and ocean-based phenomenons that could impact Ohio's winter — but NOAA said they're harder to predict. The Arctic Oscillation, for example, could cause temperatures to take a chilly plunge for the eastern U.S.

NOAA models suggest that no region of the U.S. is likely to have a colder-than-average winter, though. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions may have a drier-than-average winter this season.

Still, the Ohio Committee for Severe Weather Awareness is recommending Buckeye State residents begin preparing for severe winter conditions now. November 11 through November 17 is Winter Safety Awareness Week.

Even if temperatures don't drop immediately into dangerously cold territory, things are expected to get frigid in February. Given Ohio's turbulent weather history, it's also wise to prepare for any eventuality, including sudden snowstorms.

“Winter Safety Awareness Week is the perfect time for all of us to check our supplies and start preparing our homes and vehicles for winter,” said Ohio EMA Executive Director Sima Merick. “Remember – winter safety isn’t just being prepared for cold, snow and ice. In February of this year, 22 counties received a federal disaster declaration for flooding. So, during this week, check your homeowners or renters insurance. Consider purchasing flood insurance. Prepare for severe weather now, before winter officially begins.”

Besides preparing your own property for winter, also build a plan to check on elderly or vulnerable neighbors. Power outages are not uncommon in winter storms and that could put some residents at-risk. Knowing what to do in the event of a health emergency next door could save a life.

For more tips on how to prepare your house, and yourself, for winter conditions, visit the Ohio Committee for Severe Weather Awareness' website.

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