New Coronavirus Cases Will Increase In Ohio, Model Predicts

CLEVELAND — As the economy reopens, Ohio will see an uptick in new coronavirus cases in coming weeks, according to new modeling from MetroHealth System. The spike in new cases should lose steam in late June.

“With more people going back to work, dining out and interacting with others, of course we expect an increase in cases,” said MetroHealth CEO and President Dr. Akram Boutros. “Economic activity has to return, but we remind people to take necessary precautions.”

MetroHealth's modeling originally predicted Ohio would have a smaller number of COVID-19 cases than other models had predicted, a prediction that was proved correct. However, Boutros and other medical officials warn lax social distancing protocols could cause a spike in new cases.

Physicians and public health officials with MetroHealth have seen clusters of infection among people who went to congregate settings or events, like funerals, religious celebrations, nursing homes, confined work spaces and the Cuyahoga County Jail.

As bars, restaurants and consumer retail stores welcome customers, the model is predicting an increase in clusters of infection throughout May. With a reopen economy, contact between Ohioans is expected to increase between 200 and 350 percent.

A new surge could spike around June 5. Infections may then ebb and flow, but they will gradually decrease by the end of June, the model predicts.

Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton has repeatedly said that health officials are expecting an uptick in new COVID-19 cases due to the economic reopening. Another surge could come in the fall, though MetroHealth's model was unable to forecast that far into the future.

“We know this will be a sustained issue that our hospitals and community will work together to address for many months to come,” Boutros said.

The full, revised model can be viewed on MetroHealth's website.