Who Will Be Ohio's Next Governor? Other 2018 Election Questions

November 6 will see Ohio voters head to the polls and cast ballots that could have rippling implications for the state's future. With sitting Governor John Kasich term-limited, there will definitely be a new executive for the Buckeye State, but who will succeed Kasich? And could President Donald Trump have an impact on Ohio's political future?

There are plenty of races to watch this year in Ohio beyond the gubernatorial campaign, including a challenge to incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown and a bevy of heated House races.

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One Governor Gone, Who's Next?

The two main contenders to be the next governor for Ohio are Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine, though neither man holds an inside track to an office in Columbus. Both RealClearPolitics and the Cook Report have Ohio's gubernatorial race rated as a toss-up.

The two men are expected to engage in a highly contentious race, and the expected barrage of political ads has already begun. DeWine, who lugged an outsized campaign war chest into the primaries, aired the first attack promo against Cordray in late August, accusing his opponent of ignoring rape kit testing during his time as the state's attorney general.

With Kasich exiting office after an unsuccessful but high-profile presidential run, he has no clear successor following in his wake. DeWine's politics skew closer to a frequent Kasich opponent: Donald Trump. Cordray is a Democrat.

Whoever wins, the state can expect a change in political direction.

Is Brown In The Clear?

The other statewide election that will draw national attention is Jim Renacci's challenge of Democrat Sherrod Brown. Most polling shows the incumbent Brown with a wide lead (Quinnipiac poll has him +17 over Renacci).

The early lead has most analysts thinking Brown could again secure his term as one of Ohio's two senators. The Cook Political Report has the Renacci-Brown race leaning for the Democrats.

Renacci is a representative from the Strongsville-area, who was pressed into action after the likely Republican candidate for senator, Josh Mandel, dropped out of the race due to family health problems. The delayed entry into the race spurred a big fundraising and name recognition lead for Brown, despite Trump's and Pence's stumping for Renacci.

The Other Races

There are two must-watch House of Representative races in Ohio.

The spirited, skin-of-the-teeth race between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor in Ohio's 12th District (a traditionally Republican enclave in suburban Columbus), ended with a narrow win for Balderson in early August. That victory was a cause for a short-lived celebration.

Balderson and O'Connor will square off again in November and the race is again being called a "toss-up." O'Connor's supporters may be motivated to turn out in greater numbers by his August defeat, or they could assume the race is already over. It's too soon to tell, the Cook Report rates the race as "leaning Republican." RealClearPolitics thinks the race is a class "toss-up."

Kasich, whose political ascendance included a stint as the OH-12 representative, pointed to Balderson's narrow victory as a sign of his party's "shrinking."

“Unfortunately, our party is shrinking,” Kasich said, Politico reported. “We’re now down to about 25 percent. It’s all becoming like a remnant. Parties go through this, but the party has shrunk. And in my state and in my community and in my district, we had a congressional race that the Republican who took my place was able to win by 17 points. And in this election — yes, just a couple of weeks ago — he won by the skin of his teeth.”

Another competitive race in a historically red district will take place in the Ohio 1st, where Republican incumbent Steve Chalbot will be challenged by Democrat Aftab Pureval. The Democratic Party has helped pour money into the district, with Pureval receiving more receipts, and nearly as much cash as his opponent.

Both RealClearPolitics and the Cook Political Report have the Chalbot-Pureval race as a "toss-up." If the Ohio 1st is competitive or switches Democrat, it could spell larger doom for the Republican party in 2018, since the Cincinnati-area district is rated as one of the 200 most Republican districts in the nation.

Final Thoughts

The 2018 general election could shape up to be one of the most dramatic and vitriolic seasons in recent memory. Partisanship is at an all-time high and there are splinters within each major political party. Kasich and his peers represent a more moderate Republican party, while Trump-ian politics, with its aggressive rhetoric and take-no-prisoners philosophies, swings to the opposite side of the pendulum. Meanwhile, Democrats will grapple internally with the struggle between hard progressives (in the mold of Bernie Sanders) and moderate liberals (not unlike Cordray).

The tentacles of the national political debate will stretch into Ohio. Will they squeeze change out of the Buckeye State? Only time will tell.

Graphic from Patch