About Portland: Reasons to Question New Poll Showing Tie in Governor's Race

A poll released earlier this week showed Governor Kate Brown with an "insignificant" lead over Republican challenger Bud Pierce. The poll, conducted by Clout Research, has her leading 43.4% to 42.0%.

The poll concluded that "voters appear unconvinced that establishment pols are best for the state and that outsider candidates deserve strong consideration."

Surprisingly, the pollsters say that men have voted less than women in the past two gubernatorial races because "the last two Republicans to run with the GOP nomination have been less than a 'man's man."

It's not clear from the release if he is talking about the candidates for president or governor.

If he is talking about governor, that conclusion might come as somewhat of a surprise to Chris Dudley - the Republican candidate in 2010 - who played 16 seasons in the NBA and only lost by 1%.

If he is talking about president, it might come as a surprise to decorated Vietnam War veteran John McCain.

So, who is the pollster who came to this conclusion?

The poll was conducted by Clout Research, a Republican-tied, Ohio-based firm owned by Fritz Wenzel.

The polling site, 538.com recently included an analysis of nine Clout polls in their roundup of pollsters. The organization received a C- and was found to skew Republican.

The questions are not new.

In 2009, Salon took him to task for claiming that a poll he did for World Net Daily suggested nearly half of Americans questioned President Obama's eligibility to be president.

One year later, World Net Daily used another Wenzel poll to claim that "more Americans than ever suspect the president is hiding information about his own background and want him to come clean."

As Huffington Post pointed out, a result like that was not surprising when the questioned asked was:

"Recent polls suggest a significant percentage of Americans are concerned about Barack Obama’s refusal to release his long-form birth certificate, school records, college records, Harvard Law School papers, medical records, travel records, passport records and other personal documents. What do you think he should do?"

In 2011, he did another poll for World Net Daily suggesting that Sarah Palin would do well running against President Obama in a Democratic Primary. Right. Democratic Primary.

In 2012, he released a poll done in Virginia stating George Allen would defeat Tim Kaine - it was the other way around - and Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama - also wrong.

That same year, he also released polls showing that Todd Akin was leading Claire McCaskill in Missouri - also turned out to be wrong.

There are also questions that have been raised about Wenzel's actions before becoming a pollster.

As The Huffington Post pointed out, Wenzel had covered politics for the Toledo Blade before leaving to work for Ohio Republican Representative Jean Schmidt. Questions were raised about whether he had done work for Schmidt while still working at the Blade.

There were also questions about whether as a reporter, did Wenzel try to steer people away from what would later be a large scandal?

The paper itself wrote a story about what did Wenzel know and when did he know it?

"Did Fritz Wenzel know more about the Noe scandals than he admits?" the reporter wrote.

"That answer is probably unknowable."

So, is the race for governor as close as Wenzel says?

There's no question that Bud Pierce has growing support. An oncologist in Salem, he has no previous political experience but managed to win the Republican primary.

He's a Marine veteran who also served in the United States Naval Reserve.

And there's Governor Brown who has said she wouldn't really start campaigning until the fall, even saying no to a traditional first debate that would have happened last month.

So, maybe it is that close. And maybe it isn't.