Race for Mayor: Bailey Campaign Pushes Back on Latest Poll

One day after a new poll came out suggesting that State Treasurer has a 30 point lead over his closest challenger, that challenger sent an email saying, Not so fast.

The campaign of Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey is questioning the methodology of the poll as well the reliability of the pollster.

The poll, done for KATU News by Survey USA, put support for Wheeler at 38 percent compared to 8 percent for Bailey.

There are 13 other candidates in the race and if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the May 17 primary, the top two finishers will face each other in November.

The poll stated that 31 percent of voters are still undecided.

According to Bailey's campaign, there are three major problems with the poll:

1) They relied too heavily on people using landlines;

2) They didn't get a fair representation of Democrats;

and

3) With 15 candidates, they should not have Bailey at the beginning and Wheeler last.

Bailey's pollster says: "A correctly structured poll would either randomize the order of names or would list them in the order they will actually be on the ballot. An alphabetical listing of 15 candidates is not a scientifically valid approach."

The Bailey campaign also pointed to some SurveyUSA missteps: putting Eileen Brady in the lead in the 2012 campaign by double digits (she came in third) and in 2008 having Jeff Merkely trailing in his race for the U.S. Senate (he won).

While the Bailey campaign spent a lot of time trying to knock down the poll, it did have one number that they seized on in an email to supporters.

"Most Portland voters are undecided," Campaign Manager Christine Lewis told supporters.