No Fall Surge, But Severe Cases Of COVID On The Rise In PA

PENNSYLVANIA — Even as flu season hits and the cooler weather brings with it complications from other contagious viruses, coronavirus case levels and hospitalizations remain steady in Pennsylvania. However, more severe cases requiring intensive care have shot up.

The spike comes as cases of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, emerge at the highest levels in years. Coupled with seasonal peaks in influenza and COVID-19, it has officials warning of a possible “tridemic” or “tripledemic."

Pennsylvania has just four north-central and northeastern counties in the "high" level of transmission, in which masks are recommended in indoor, public places. That's down from 14 in September, though it's an increase over last week, when there was just one county in the "high" level.

>>Tripledemic' Warning As Respiratory Illness Cases Skyrocket In PA

The CDC adopted the community-level metric — a metric based on hospitalizations and case rates — in late February. The agency updates its color-coded COVID maps each Thursday, recommending masks in counties with "high" community levels.

Here's the latest map:

Severe cases

For two years running, the cooler weather has brought with it enormous spikes in COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania. The fall surge in 2020 began in October and November and saw case loads increase expotentially into Jan. 2021, peaking with a daily rate over 10,000. A year later, increases started at around the same time, with the new omicron variant tripling 2020's highest daily case load to over 30,000 by Jan. 2022.

That is not the case thus far this year, as coronavirus levels remain steady. In fact, they're continuing to drop. But severe cases are on the rise.

According to data from the New York Times, the number of people in intensive care units in Pennsylvania hospitals has skyrocketed by 20 percent in the past two weeks.

Deaths related to coronavirus, too, have increased by 3 percent over the same time period.

It's data that's backed up by the state's Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard. The average daily number of patients on a ventilator increased to 64. It was at 54 two weeks ago.

Similarly, 1.8 percent of all emergency room visits in the state are now due to COVID-19 symptoms. It's an increase from 1.4 percent last week, and a sharp increase from as low as 0.4 percent earlier in the fall.

Latest data

Here's where the rest of Pennsylvania's coronavirus numbers stand this week compared to last week.

• 8,722 total new cases, a decrease from 9,079
• An incidence rate of 68.1, a decrease from 70.9
• A positivity rate of 11.2 percent, a decrease from 11.4 percent
• 1,213 average daily hospitalizations, a decrease from 1,201
• 64 average patients on ventilators per day, an increase over 63
• 1.8 percent of all emergency room visits are due to COVID-19, up from 1.4 last week

Looking forward

Overall numbers continue to fall, though with the emergence of higher RSV case rates, the potential for a "tripledemic," and a new immune-resistant variant of COVID-19, officials say there is stillc ause for concern.

The Northeast region, which includes Pennsylvania, continues to show higher COVID levels in its wastewater than the rest of the nation. COVID wastewater levels are measured by estimated gene copies per milliliters of sewage.

Wastewater samples in the Northeast had 1,181 copies/mL during the week ending Oct. 19, according to Biobot Analytics, which monitors sewage as it relates to public health. That's higher than the rest of the nation during that timeframe, with Biobot's data showing the following: 656 copies/mL in the Midwest, 409 copies/mL in the South and 496 copies/mL in the West. See the data here.