PA Democrats Near Historic Flip Of General Assembly

HARRISBURG, PA — What was broadly expected to be a red wave of support for Republicans nationwide after the first two years of President Joe Biden's administration has become a near-historic victory for the left in Pennsylvania. Democrats appear poised to take control of the general assembly for the first time in years, which, coupled with Attorney General Josh Shapiro's convincing gubernatorial win, would give the party power and influence it hasn't had in the state in years.

The stakes for the Keystone State could not have been higher during the midterms. Huge policy issues like abortion hung in the balance, as a Doug Mastriano victory in the governor's race likely would have meant passage of his abortion-outlawing Heartbeat Bill. With Pennsylvania remaining a key battleground state and controversy over mail-in ballots continuing, the midterms also decided what party would preside over the looming 2024 Presidential election.

Not only did Mastriano lose, but Democrats flipped 12 seats in the general assembly. Republicans came into election day with a 112-90 majority. It now sits at 101 Democrats, 100 Republicans, and two still to be determined.

Democratic State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who lost the U.S. Senate primary to John Fetterman but became a vocal advocate of candidates statewide throughout the election season, said that "Pennsylvanians rejected the bigotry and the noise."

"Democrats ran on the issues and solutions," Kenyatta added. "We will reduce inflation by taking in the corporate price gouging and greed, protect reproductive rights, and reduce crime by passing the common sense gun safety reforms that we know save lives along with smart investment in law enforcement."

Republicans have had a grip on the general assembly for 23 of the past 27 years, with the last span of prolonged Democratic control coming in the mid-1990s. A Democratic victory in 2022 would give Shapiro an ability to enact the type of sweeping legislation the left hasn't been able to do since Ed Rendell was in office in 2010. Shapiro would also have influence that Gov. Tom Wolf has never been able to command, as the last Republican body firmly was entrenched against most of his major policy endeavors.

Two races linger: the 142nd district in Bucks County between Republican Joseph Hogan and Democrat Mark Moffa, and the 151st district in Montgomery County between Democratic challenger Melissa Cerrato and longtime GOP incumbent State Rep. Todd Stephens.

The issues convoluting the 142nd appear to require more time to resolve, but the race would be a moot point for control of the body if the 151st flips to blue. As of late Wednesday, the Republican Hogan led with 15,448 votes to the Democrat Moffa's 15,394. Bucks County Board of Elections Director Tom Freitag said that there are 47 challenges to votes that were either rejected or counted by the Board of Elections during its meeting Tuesday. He said another four ballots are still being researched. Bucks County Commissioner Gene DiGirolamo added that "they're really struggling" over determining which ballots can be legally counted.

The 151st, meanwhile, appears to be nearing its conclusion. Cerrato has pulled ahead by the razor thin margin of 37 votes, with around 56 votes left to be counted as of Thursday morning. Forty-four of those were Democrat ballots that were being challenged by Stephens' legal team and 12 of those were Republican ballots that were being challenged by Cerrato's lawyers.

"We are remaining patient as the votes are tabulated and all proper procedures are followed and are optimistic that we will all be celebrating when final numbers come in," Cerrato wrote.

The possibility of the loss of Stephens, one of the most moderate Republicans in the legislature who has voted with the Democratic minority on several occassions while championing bills on gun control and climate change, is perhaps the most telling indication of a shift in both that district's demographics and the larger leftward intertia statewide. Stephens was among the very few Republicans in southeastern Pennsylvania that held on to his seat in 2020, winning reelection by less than 2,000 votes.

That seat has been red since it first came into existence in 1969, save for a short three-year period of Democratic control under Rep. Rick Taylor from 2007 to 2010. Stephens has held it since 2010.

Republicans have, however, maintained control of the state senate by the same margin of 28 to 22.

With reporting from Patch correspondents Jon Campisi and Dino Ciliberti