In 24th State Senate Race, A Changing District Could Determine Chamber's Control

One of the most compelling local elections in the Philadelphia suburbs is the battle for state senate in the 24th district, where longtime Republican incumbent Tracy Pennycuick looks to hold off a challenge from Democrat Christopher Thomas. In an intensely competitive battle for control of the upper chamber, it's among a handful of swing races that could hold the final sway.

Thomas, a volunteer firefighter, former school teacher, and community organizer, has never held office. He did direct the campaign of Pennycuick's challenger, Jill Dennin, in 2024, bringing Democrats within a few thousand votes of flipping the seat.

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The Green Party's Michael Schonewolf, of Skippack, a Phoenixville Hospital employee and medicare reformist, is also in the race.

Pennycuick's 24th is one of the final Republican bastions in Montgomery County, with state senate and legislative districts all around turning blue since 2018.

The district covers a massive swath from North Wales, Skippack, Limerick, and Collegeville and all of the land to Pottstown, Upper Pottsgrove, and Douglass Township to the border with Berks County. It then continues into Berks County, covering Amity Township, Colebrookdale, Rockland Township, and more in the eastern half.

A lot of that is rural, the beginning of territory stretching clear across the entire center of the state that has voted with Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections.

But much of it is also rapidly growing suburbia, featuring communities along Route 422 and the Schuylkill River that lean hard to the left. Those demographics have been moving in that direction for at least a decade, if not more.

The election results in the 24th over the past 15 years or so tell the full story.

As recently as 2010, when the 24th was in the hands of legendary Republican State Sen. Bob Mensch, he won by an almost overwhelming margin, 52,395 to 34,481. That heavy margin was slimmed to just 5,000 votes when Pennycuick took up Mensch's mantle in 2018, the midterms that first brought the term "blue wave" to suburban Philly electoral vocabulary.

The 2022 redistricting of state senatorial districts eliminated heavily red parts of Bucks County from the district. Pennycuick still defeated Jill Dennin 62,893 to 58,053 in 2022, but impacts of the redrawn lines and changing demographics were clear.

To the east and the south of the 24th, the heavily populated 12th (Maria Collett) and 44th (Katie Muth) districts have been in Democratic control since 2018. To the west and the north of the 24th, however, are rural areas in the 48th and 16th in more firmly Republican control. The 24th, then, is figured as something of a frontier between two worlds.

At first glance, demographics continue to favor Republicans. Department of State data shows 83,467 registered Republicans to just 72,630 registered Democrats in the 24th. There are, however, 26,445 independents registered in the district, more than enough to sway the election in either direction. And nationally, the pendulum swing that brought Republicans sweeping victories in 2024 is expected to come at least partway back to the left in 2026.

But trends will only say so much about forecasting the election itself, particularly in a year which has seen electoral battle lines redrawn in Pennsylvania by the ogre issue of the times: data centers for artificial intelligence.

Pennycuick has positioned herself, much like gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity and other more moderate leading Republicans around the state, as an opponent of reckless data center development. She introduced legislation in May to protect communities from big tech companies, which would require data centers to meet certain benchmarks and prohibit state and local government agencies from entering into non-disclosure agreements.

"Data centers should not be forced into communities, placed on every undeveloped or underdeveloped parcel, or advanced in locations where residents have made clear they are not in support," Pennycuick said at the time. "Projects of this magnitude carry significant implications for land use, infrastructure, energy demand, and water resources that must be considered carefully and transparently."

Pennycuick did initially support "fast tracking" data center developments, just like Shapiro. She later changed course, like Shapiro, but unlike the governor, she advocated for an 18 month moratorium on all data center developments until a more complete analysis of their impacts could be completed.

Thomas has fallen more traditionally in line with the governor and many other establishment Democrat figures in Pennsylvania, also refusing to support a moratorium and the stricter standards championed by State Sen. Muth. Instead he's called for careful regulation.

"Thomas' platform is built around a plan he calls 'No Blank Check for Big Tech,'" his website states. "He says Big Tech should not get special deals or handouts that working families never would. He says residents' electric bills should not go up because tech companies want more power. He calls for data centers to meet their own energy needs and for corporations to pay their fair share toward schools and infrastructure. And he wants utility companies to publicly disclose electric capacity and planning, with communities having meaningful input."

Much of the remainder of the race has fallen squarely on party lines, with Thomas supporting Shapiro's education and transit funding initiatives and Pennycuick calling for more responsible spending and relieving the tax burden on residents.