Phillies-Astros World Series Game 1: Matchup, Time, Odds, Predictions, Houston's Weakness

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The first pitch of the 2022 World Series will be 8:03 p.m. Friday night, and it will be thrown to a Philadelphia Phillie.

Houston Astros ace and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander will take the mound. The Phillies Kyle Schwarber will stand in and face him as the leadoff hitter. There's a good chance for a lead off home run if Schwarber wins the battle. But there's also a good chance of a strikeout. Verlander is one of the greatest of all time.

Here's a glance at what to keep an eye out for in Game 1:

The case for a pitcher's duel

At the age of 39, Verlander remains elite. He pitched to an otherworldly 1.75 ERA in the regular season, and is a favorite for the American League Cy Young award. If he wins, it will be the third of his career, to go along with three runner-up finishes and three more top five finishes.

He's only pitched against this iteration of this Phillies once, and it was earlier this month. On Oct. 4, when the Phillies visited Houston, he threw five shutout innings, giving up no hits, walking one, and striking out 10.

Luckily for the Phillies, they're countering with a man who shut down the Astros in his most recent matchup with equal ferocity.

RELATED: Phillies Handed Astros Their Last Loss, Weeks Ago

The night before Verlander threw, Nola was not just ace-like. He was perfect. He entered the seventh inning without allowing a hit or a walk. He finished with 9 strikeouts over 6.2 shutout innings of 2-hit ball. The Phillies clinched their playoff berth that night.

Nola was stellar in the regular season, too, quietly having one of the best years of his career with a 3.25 ERA.

While Verlander had a superior regular season ERA, Nola tallied 6.0 wins above replacement (WAR, a cumulative statistic that measures a player's seasonal value) to Verlander's 5.9.

The case for a slugfest

For all of Verlander's generational baubles, he's never won a World Series game. Anyone who watches or listens to the game will hear the announcers dive more deeply into that statistic than anyone asked for. But across seven career games in the World Series, Verlander has no wins and 6 losses with a 5.68 ERA.

More relevant may be Verlander's ERA this postseason: it sits at 6.30. He was largely effective in a game against the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, but he was lit up by the Seattle Mariners in his first start in the Divisional Series. He's facing the hottest lineup this postseason in the Fightin Phils, who boast two of the best left handed hitters in the sport in Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

Nola was unhittable in his last start against the Astros, and he similarly shut down the Cardinals in Game 2 of the Wild Card and the Braves in Game 2 of the Divisonal Series. But in the NLCS, his last start, the Padres knocked him around for several runs in the Phillies only loss of the series. He'll have his hands full with an Astros lineup at full strength, including overpowering left handed hitters like Yordan Alvarez and a slew of veteran postseason performers headlined by core Astros Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

What to watch for

Nola often starts slow before becoming dominant. Even in his best starts, first innings can be a bit rocky. Expect Minute Maid Park to get raucous in the bottom of the first after Verlander gets a clean inning and the Astros get a few men on.

But Nola is seasoned, and the pressure can't be any higher than facing his own brother in San Diego, can it? He's built for the big moments like so much of this magic Philadelphia squad, and odds are good he'll get out of an early jam and silence the Astros bats for six or seven innings.

Verlander may shut the Phillies down the first few times through the order, and it could indeed be a quiet and quick game. But look for the Phillies bats to wake up in a big way the third time through the order. They've had multiple huge innings this postseason in the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings, right around when the starter tires. They did it with Yu Darvish, and they can do it with Verlander.

The Phillies have also been homer-happy when they do break through. A bomb from one of the Phillies big lefties, Schwarber or Harper, is likely late.

If the Phillies are leading, expect Seranthony Dominguez or Jose Alvarado to each throw more than an inning whenever manager Rob Thomson needs to turn to the bullpen.

Lineups

The Phillies are rolling with the same lineup they've used against right-handers all postseason.

1. LF Kyle Schwarber

2. 1B Rhys Hoskins

3. C J.T. Realmuto

4. DH Bryce Harper

5. RF Nick Castellanos

6. 3B Alec Bohm

7. SS Bryson Stott

8. 2B Jean Segura

9. CF Brandon Marsh

The Astros have not yet announced their lineup, but this is what it looked like against the Yankees Gerritt Cole in Game 3 of the ALCS, the last time they faced a right-hander.

1. 2B Jose Altuve

2. SS Jeremy Pena

3. LF Yordan Alvarez

4. 3B Alex Bregman

5. RF Kyle Tucker

6. 1B Yuli Gurriel

7. DH Trey Mancini

8. C Christian Vazquez

9. CF Chas McCormick

Predictions for Game 1

ESPN: Astros (12 writers), Phillies (2 writers)

MLB.com: Astros (58 writers), Phillies (17 writers)

Draftkings: Astros

Sportsbook: Astros

Predict 'Em: Astros

Sports Betting Dime: Phillies

Sports Illustrated: Phillies

NY Post: Phillies

Patch: Phillies

Odds

As of Friday afternoon, the moneyline for the 2022 World Series is minus 170 in favor of Houston. The Phillies are plus 150. They've been deeply underestimated by bettors in all three of their postseason series thus far.

Oddshark has the Astros at minus 180 favorites, to the Phillies at plus 150.

As a comparison, the final moneyline for the 2018 Super Bowl was minus 175 in favor of New England. The Eagles were plus 155.

41-33, you may say in rejoinder.

Schedule, television, tickets

The Phillies and Astros will play a best of seven series to determine the world champion. As with all of their series so far, the first two games will be away for the Phillies. Friday and Saturday are in Houston, before the World Series returns to Philadelphia next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Here's the full schedule:

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 28 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Houston
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 29 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Houston
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 31 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Philadelphia
Game 4: Tuesday, Nov. 1 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Philadelphia
Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 2 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Philadelphia
Game 6: Friday, Nov. 4 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Houston
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 8:03 p.m., on Fox, in Houston

RELATED: From $20 To $20K: The Surreality Of Phillies World Series Ticket Prices

Tickets to the home games in Philadelphia are on sale. Tickets for Game 3, the first game in Philadelphia on Halloween night, start at $1,080 on Stubhub. They're also available on the Phillies official site.

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