Phillies Battle Braves In NLDS: Schedule, Matchups, Odds, Predictions

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The Phillies left no doubts this week that they are a World Series contender, decisively sweeping the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round and advancing to a rematch with the titans of baseball, the Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies met the Braves in this second round, the National League Divisional Series, last fall. They won 3-1.

The Braves are better this year. So are the Phillies. For both teams, the goal all year long has been a World Series victory.

See also: Bryson Stott's Epic Grand Slam Helps Phillies Sweep Marlins

Here's what you need to know ahead of the next round of the MLB playoffs.

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7 in Atlanta, 6:07 p.m. on TBS

Game 2: Monday, Oct. 9 in Atlanta, 6:07 p.m. on TBS

Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 11 in Philadelphia, time still to be determined, on TBS

Game 4. Thursday, Oct. 12 in Philadelphia, time still to be determined, on TBS

Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 14 in Atlanta, time still to be determined, on TBS

How they got here

The Braves are the top seed in the National League after finishing the regular season with the best record in all of baseball, at 104-58. They had a bye in the first round. Their historic season featured one of the most potent offensive attacks ever, with 5 players hitting 31 homers or more, and all 9 regular starters hitting 17 or more. It was spearheaded by Ronald Acuna Jr. becoming the first player in history to steal at least 70 bases while hitting at least 40 home runs. Matt Olson also broke out with an MLB leading 54 home runs.

The Phillies finished the year at 90-72, 14 games behind Atlanta, and went 5-8 against the Braves during the regular season. But those games were dog fights, and there's no doubt that the series is the most hotly anticipated of the four divisional series.

Pitching matchups

Nothing is official yet, but the overwhelming likelihood is that the first three games look like this:

• Game 1: Phillies Ranger Suarez vs. Braves Spencer Strider
• Game 2: Phillies Zack Wheeler vs. Braves Max Fried
• Game 3: Phillies Aaron Nola vs. Braves Kyle Wright or Bryce Elder

With Game 4, the way the schedule lines up, the Phillies could throw Suarez again on regular rest. They could also deploy Wheeler on regular rest in a hypothetical Game 5. They also have tools like 4 and 5 starters Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez to come out of the bullpen. In 2022, Rob Thomson used Suarez as a "swiss army knife" relief weapon in addition to starting him. If that happens again, potentially in Game 4, it could open up a slot for Walker or Sanchez to start.

Predictions

The Braves are arguably one of the best baseball teams in history, certainly one of the greatest offenses, and they proved it with their dominant 104-win season. They deserve another World Series ring.

Their vulnerability is their pitching. The Phillies have hit their aces well in the past, most notably in the NLDS last year. These are the last two NL pennant winners, and they know how to succeed in October.

If anything, this Phillies team is built explicitly for a short playoff series. The team is stacked with players who, while lacking the consistency of Atlanta's stars, can light the Earth on fire when they're hitting their stride. Wheeler and Nola were in Cy Young form this week against Miami. Strider blew up against Philly last fall, and has been knocked around for at least 3 runs in four of his final six starts. Fried, meanwhile, has been battling a blister on his throwing hand, and it's unclear how deep he can pitch into games.

Atlanta is great, but there are questions. The Phillies, armed with a generational offense of their own, know how to exploit them. Expect a high scoring Game 1 won by Atlanta, before Philly wins a close Game 2 behind Wheeler and an explosive Game 3 behind Nola. The Braves will force a Game 5 back in Atlanta, which will be won by the Phillies thanks to another clutch Bryce bomb and a multi-inning relief performance from Jose Alvorado.

Odds

The Braves are minus 184 odds to win the series, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

On the more optimistic side, Phillies improved their World Series odds from plus 1200 to plus 800 with their drudging of the Marlins. They now have the fifth best odds to win it all, trailing only the Braves (plus 260), the Dodgers (plus 440), the Astros (plus 490), and the Orioles (plus 700).

What's next

The winner of this series will face the winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in the best of seven National League Championship Series. The winner of that series moves on to the final round, the World Series.