Phillies To Host Marlins In Wild Card Series: Schedule, Pitching Matchups, More

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The furious flourishing of the Fish in the final week of the season means that the National League Wild Card Series this week in south Philadelphia will not be a matchup with Chicago or Arizona, as was widely expected, but with an old familiar foe, the Miami Marlins.

Here's what to know as Red October gets underway:

Schedule and TV

The best of three series will be held Tuesday, Wednesday, and, if neccessary, Thursday, Oct. 3, 4, and 5. All games will be at Citizens Bank Park, and all will start at 8:08 p.m., aired on ESPN.

How they got here

The Phillies secured their postseason berth last week and ended the season 90-72, their best record since 2011. They are the 4th seed overall in the National League, and the top Wild Card position. As the defending National League Champions, expectations are sky high. This is a team that knows they can win the World Series.

See also: Phillies Clinch Playoff Berth With Walk-Off Hit In Extra Innings

The Marlins are back in the playoffs for just the second time in 20 years. Their only playoff berth in two decades came in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Their battle for a playoff spot came down to the final series of the year, during which they completed an impressive September run, outlasting a crowded Wild Card field to nab the fifth seed.

Pitching matchups

Game 1: Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler vs. Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo

Game 2: Phillies RHP Aaron Nola vs. Marlins LHP Braxton Garrett

Game 3 starters haven't been formally announced, but the Phillies will trot out lefthander Ranger Suarez, unless he's used in relief in Game 1 or 2. The Marlins, meanwhile, would probably use right hander Edward Cabrera.

What to know about the Marlins

A 69-win team a year ago, this iteration of the Marlins has never been an easy team to beat, especially for the Phillies. They're built around their outstanding pitching depth, which is lefty-heavy and matches up well against the powerful lefty sluggers in the Phillies lineup.

And while the Marlins have struggled with consistency at times, they've proved they can hang with anyone. That's been especially true in the final month of the season, as the Marlins had a losing record (66-67) as recently as Aug. 31 before flipping their entire narrative with an 18-9 finish in September. That was the third best record in baseball in September.

History says that this makes the Marlins one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason. The 2011 Phillies were upended by a Marlins-like St. Louis Cardinals squad that got hot at the right moment and won it all. There are even analogues to the 2022 Phillies in the '23 Marlins, universal underdogs with the worst record of all playoff teams, but a roster good enough to win it all.

The Marlins won the season series, 7-6. Since the Phillies became competitive again in 2018, the Marlins, regardless of how they fininshed that year, have given them trouble. In that six year time span, the Phils have just a 50-49 record against the Fish.

Still, the Phillies outscored the Marlins by 11 runs during their 13 games this year, and four of the seven Marlin wins were one-run victories. The Fish don't match up well against the Phillies pitchers, either, so odds of a few close pitching duels are high. Especially so with all arms on deck in a short series.

Key players

While the Marlins are hoping their big left handers can neutralize Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies are one of baseball's best offenses because of their balanced lineup.

Look for Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos to make a big impact early on in Games 1 and 2.

Aaron Nola hasn't been fully himself in 2023, but he's shown flashes of his old brilliance in a series of dominating performances. If the Phillies get vintage Nola in Game 2, this could be a very short series.

Odds

The Phillies were underdogs in all four postseason series last year. They won three of them.

2023, unsurpisingly, is a little bit different. ESPN's analytics give the Phillies a 60 percent chance of winning this series against the Marlins. The Phils are also -172 Moneyline favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Phillies have the sixth best odds to win the World Series, according to FanDuel Sportsbook:

1. Braves +260
2. Dodgers +430
3. Astros +500
4. Orioles +700
5. Rays +1200
5. Phillies +1200
7. Twins +1700
7. Brewers +1700
9. Rangers +2000
10. Blue Jays +2000
11. Diamondbacks +3500
12. Marlins +4000

Prediction

Luzardo and Wheeler's pitching duel will end with a close victory for the Phils in Game 1. The Marlins will take an early lead off of Nola in Game 2, and the Phillies late rally against the Marlins bullpen will fall short. But the Phillies will blow it open in Game 3, scoring 10 runs behind a dominant Ranger Suarez performance to win the series, 2-1.

What's next

The winner of this series will held to Atlanta, to face the MLB-leading Braves in the best of five National League Division Series. The Phillies beat the Braves 3-1 in that series last year.