Can the Phillies, on the brink of the postseason, end an 11-year playoff drought?

PHILADLEPHIA, PA — September is well underway, and baseball fans around the country are starting to count the games left like autumn leaves falling. The magic number for many teams to clinch a postseason spot is dwindling down, and as of Friday night, the Phillies have just 22 games left. And they're still right in the thick of the hunt.

Even after a heartbreaking loss with two outs and two strikes on Thursday night, the Phils sit 3.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead in the East. They're also 3.5 games behind the Reds for the second Wild Card spot.

But the Phillies have been here before. In fact, they've been nowhere but exactly here. For years.

The Phillies have arrived at this weekend in the season in nearly an identical position every year since 2018, lurking on the periphery of the playoff picture: they are 2 games over .500 this year. They were 3 over last year, 6 over in 2019, and 7 over in 2018.

And from Sept. 8 and onward the past three years, the Phillies have collapsed in nearly identical fashion: 7-14 in 2020, 7-13 in 2019, and 6-15 in 2018. The latter two collapses were allegedly what led Phillies owner John Middleton to firing Gabe Kapler, the frontrunner for the 2021 manger of the year award out in San Francisco.

Pessimists will say another late season collapse is inevitable, because they're accustomed to this era of Phillies baseball raising hopes and then crushing them, as Steve Goodman said of his days in the bleachers of Wrigley Field, "like so many paper beer cups, year after year after year, after year after year after year after year after year, till those hopes are just so much popcorn for the pigeons beneath the L tracks to eat."

The script for 2021 remains unknown. But there are reasons to believe the 2021 Phillies are primed to break the wheel.

Starting pitching

Never in the past four years of fielding competitive squads have the Phillies had this sort of starting pitching depth, not since the golden age of the 2007-2011 teams.

For years now, Aaron Nola's only real complement who has offered consistency has been Zach Eflin. Some combination of Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez combined to fill out of the rest of the rotation, offering glimpses of promise but largely offering ERAs well north of 4.00.

The 2021 staff now features three starters who routinely pitch late into games besides Nola and Eflin, all with ERAs at 3.30 or lower: Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, and Ranger Suarez.

Eflin's out for the year, and much has been made of Nola's 2021 struggles, but there's ample evidence he's been the victim of some bad luck. Having four very reliable — and at least two ace-like (Wheeler and Suarez) — starters in September is something the Phillies have not had in their recent late season collapses.

Strength of schedule

The Phillies have one of the easiest schedules in baseball from here on out, playing all of their games against teams out of the playoff picture — with the notable exception of a three game series with the Braves at the end of September.

The Braves also have an easy schedule, but the Reds, and especially the Padres, face multiple opponents still in the playoff race.

Two routes to October

The Phillies don't need to rely on the Braves to falter to get to the postseason. They're only a few games back in the Wild Card race as well. Slip ups from either the Reds or the Padres could open the door.

Momentum

The Phillies 2021 season has been topsy turvy, but they've ridden several recent hot streaks to stay in contention. A pair of 8-2 runs over the past two months has made up for some sloppy play against last place squads like Arizona and Miami. It's a bounce back trend that was largely absent from the past three years.

In both 2018 and 2019, the Phillies held on to first place for a period of the summer, surging to the front only to actually begin their collapse before Sept. 8. The shortened 2020 season was a bit of a microcosm of that, although extrapolating meaning from such a small sample size is challenging.

Moreover, the 2021 team has its best players on fire right now. Bryce Harper is almost guaranteed to earn first or second in the MVP voting, and is now hitting a monstrous .305 with a 1.019 OPS on the year. Wheeler remains in the Cy Young hunt. It's a good one-two punch to have, especially with the possibility of a one-game, winner take all Wild Card series looming.