Red October Continues: Phillies Seek World Series Berth, Battle Padres In NLCS

PHILADELPHIA, PA — The Phillies and Flyers won almost two days ago. The Eagles won 14 hours ago. The victory anthem that is "Dancing On My Own" is still roaring in the cavernous echoes of all three stadiums on South Broad, and it's running down most every spine for a 60 mile radius.

The Phillies are headed to the National League Championship Series and are just four wins away from returning to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

There were many moments that defined the triumph over the defending World Series champion and NL East archrival Atlanta Braves this weekend. There was Rhys Hoskins' bat slam on his three-run home run, a hit that sent momentum irreversibly spiraling in a Phillie direction, minutes after the Phillies homegrown star was booed for making an error and striking out. Whispered legend around Citizens Bank Park is that they're still digging fragments of Louisville slugger wood from the earth.

There was J.T. Realmuto's inside the park home run, where the best catcher in baseball proved he is one of the best athletes on the planet as he tore around the bases with a stride more closely resembling Saquon Barkley or Devon Allen than his positional peers.

There was another Aaron Nola gem. There were more Bryce Harper homers. There was manager "Philly Rob" Thomson's humble demeanor.

And there was an entire city chanting a nearly 10-year-old song about getting over an ex-lover. Now, it's an anthem for a nation watching its adored favorites fall one by one to the gritty Phillies.

Here's what you need to know about the upcoming series with the Padres.

Schedule, television, tickets

The Phillies and Padres will play a best of seven series. Tuesday and Wednesday are in San Diego, before the series comes back to south Philadelphia on Friday night.

Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 18 at 8:03 pm., on FS1, in San Diego
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 19 at 4:35 p.m. on FS1/Fox, in San Diego
Game 3: Friday, Oct. 21, 7:37 p.m., on FS1, in Philadelphia
Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 22, 7:45 p.m. on Fox, in Philadelphia
Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2:37 p.m., on FS1, in Philadelphia
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 24, 8:03 p.m., on FS1, in San Diego
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 25, 8:03 p.m., on Fox/FS1, in San Diego

Tickets to the home games in Philadelphia are on sale. The Friday night game starts at $314 on Stubhub. They're also available on the Phillies official site.

How they got here

The Phillies swept the NL Central champion Cardinals 2-0 in the Wild Card series before defeating the NL East champion Braves 3-1 in the NLDS. The Phillies were huge underdogs in both series. Patch predicted a big Phillies upset and the exact series result in both the Wild Card and NLDS.

The Padres have been big underdogs of their own. They slayed the 101-win Mets in the Wild Card, 2-1, before stunning their own archrivals, the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers, 3-1 in the NLDS.

The Padres were the 5 seed entering the playoffs, and the Phillies the 6 seed. The Padres finished the regular season just two games ahead of the Phillies, 89-73 to the Phillies 87-75.

Matchups

Game 1: The Phillies have not announced their pitching lineup yet, but it will very likely be Zack Wheeler, who can throw Game 1 on full rest. The first of the Phillies two co-aces, Wheeler has been lights out in the posteason, shutting down the Cardinals for 6 innings in the Wild Card before allowing 3 runs in 6 innings to the Braves in the NLDS. His 2.82 regular season ERA would have placed him 6th in the National League (he missed qualifying for the ERA title by a handful of innings, as injuries limited him to 154 on the season). Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2020 by any metric, 2022 injuries notwithstanding.

The Padres will go with perennial Cy Young contender Yu Darvish, who was lights out in the first half before struggling much of the second half. However, he was stellar against the Mets, throwing 7 innings of one-run ball in Game 1 of the Wild Card.

The Phillies don't have much experience with him. They scored 3 runs in 6 innings against him back during the regular season. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins doubled.

Game 2: Homegrown ace Aaron Nola will probably get the ball in Game 2, unless Thomson decides to switch things up and throw him in Game 1. Nola has thrown nearly 13 innings without giving up an earned run in the postseason, including decisive wins against both the Cardinals and Braves. His near-perfect gem in his final regular season start against the Astros helped clinch a playoff berth for the Phillies.

The Padres have not announced anything beyond Darvish, but former American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell will probably throw Game 3. The Phils hit Snell for 4 runs in 5.2 innings back on June 26, in the game that a Snell fastball broke Bryce Harper's thumb and put him on the injured list for two months. Snell had a 3.38 ERA in the regular season, and is coming off a stellar 5.1 innings of 1-run ball against the powerful Dodgers lineup in the NLDS.

Game 3: Phillies number three starter and homegrown talent Ranger Suarez (3.65 regular season ERA) will take the mound Friday night in Philadlephia. Suarez shut down the Braves for a few innings in the NLDS.

2022 Cy Young candidate Joe Musgrove will likely pitch Game 3. The Phillies ended Musgrove's streak of unbeaten starts back on June 23, when they tagged the ace for 6 runs in 6 innings, including a 5-run burst in the 6th. Musgrove pitched San Diego's decisive Game 4 against the Dodgers and finished the regular season with an elite 2.93 ERA.

Game 4: The Phillies would probably go with Noah Syndergaard here, after he threw 3 innings of 1-run ball against the Braves in the decisive Game 4 of the NLDS. Bailey Falter would also be available for a chunk of innings if need be, but expect the Phillies to increasingly rely on their bullpen weapons for multiple innings — especially Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, and Zach Eflin — in games that Nola and Wheeler don't start.

The Padres would throw either Sean Manaea (4.96 ERA) or Mike Clevinger (4.36 ERA) in Game 4. Both performed below expectations in 2022 but have flashed top of the rotation excellence in the past.

Game 5: If neccessary, Game 5 would be a Darvish vs. Wheeler rematch.

Game 6: Again, the Padres and Phillies would probably roll out their Game 2 starters, Nola and Snell, for a rematch if this game was neccessary.

Game 7: With all hands on deck for a must win elimination game, the Padres would happily turn things over to Musgrove, assuming games 4-6 went as laid out here. The Phillies might start with Suarez, but expect everyone but Nola to be available for innings in a winner-take-all.

Analysis

The Phillies went 4-3 against the Padres during the regular season. As evident from a glance above, they hit all three of the Padres best pitchers well in 2022. None of Musgrove, Snell, or Darvish shut the Philly offense down, and that included when Harper was not in the lineup.

The Padres are, in many ways, the Phillies West Coast twin. Both emerged from the 2018 offseason with an enormous free agent signing (the Padres signed Manny Machado to a record contract weeks before the Phillies nabbed Harper). They overhauled their roster to build around a young core, though their farm system and their young players have received far more recognition in national media than the Phillies. They made a series of huge moves this offseason, like the Phillies, and stunned the baseball world by trading most of the upper echelon of their farm system for superstar Juan Soto in August.

They were Wild Card underdogs against the Mets and Dodgers the way the Phillies were against the Cardinals and Braves. They both have momentum, and enormous expectations from a starving fanbase. The Phillies had an 11-year postseason drought, but the Padres haven't been on the NLCS stage since 1998, when they eventually lost to the New York Yankees in the World Series. It's only their third trip this far into the postseason in franchise history. They've never won a World Series.

Positionally, they line up closely. Behind Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryce Harper, the Phillies have the advantage in left field, catcher, first base, and designated hitter. The Padres have Trent Grisham, Juan Soto, and Jake Cronenworth giving them the advantage in center field, right field, and second base. Shortstop is something of a toss up between Ha-Seong Kim and Bryson Stott.

The Padres undoubtedly have the deeper relief core, with big arms like Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, and Nick Martinez locking down the back end of games. But the Phillies relievers have been pretty hard to hit in the postseason, particularly that trio of Dominguez, Alvarado, and Eflin.

The Phillies know they can hit the Padres aces, and they know they can rely on Wheeler and Nola, but how they line up in games filled out by the rest of the rotation and bullpen will likely determine the series. They'll likely need more than just the trio above to perform well to beat the Padres. They'll also need veteran reliever David Robertson to come back to the top of his game, as he completes recovery from a calf injury. And they'll surely need to rely on Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellati for at least a few important innings.

Patch prediction: After splitting a pair of pitching duels in San Diego, the Phillies go on an offensive tear and win 2 out of 3 at home in Philadelphia. They clinch behind another Aaron Nola gem in Game 6 to send them back to the World Series.

Odds and predictions

For the third series in a row, the Phillies are underdogs. Just the way they like it.

Oddshark has the Padres as minus 125 favorites, to the Phillies plus 115. For context, the vaunted Braves were minus 200 favorites in the NLDS, to the Phillies plus 170 underdog status.

Fangraphs narrowly favors the Padres, at 51.5 percent likelihood to win, to the Phillies, at 48.5 percent likelihood. The Cardinals had 55 percent odds over the Phillies, and the Braves 54 percent.

No one on the Fangraphs staff predicted a Phillies and Padres National League Championship Series. Nor did anyone in national media.

Neither team, however, expected anything different. J.T. Realmuto's words to ESPN following the Wild Card still hold true.

"I can promise you that not one person in that clubhouse is surprised at what we're doing."