Health & Fitness
Unemployment "facts"
Taking a look at the "facts" about unemployment depends on what you do with the data. Who is right?
This being an election year, you will likely hear a lot of “facts” thrown around justifying various positions. For example, one person may say, “Based on government data, the unemployment rate is down to 8.64%!”. Another person will say, “No, based on government data, it’s 9.46%”.
Who’s right? Actually they both are. It all depends on how you analyze the government data.
Here’s how it works.
Find out what's happening in North Hillsfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues two monthly surveys on employment. One is the establishment or payroll report that measures all full and part time workers in nonagricultural establishments. The other is the household survey based on a representative sampling of families.
The household survey reports the number of adults employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. Persons not employed may be included in the unemployed
category or in the not in the labor force (NiLF) category depending on whether
they are “actively looking for work”. A given individual thus may be classified
as unemployed one month and NiLF the next month. This uncertainty creates
questions about the real unemployment rate. The following historical data
illustrates these questions.
Find out what's happening in North Hillsfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
(See Labor Force Data)
The data cover the last employment upturn from 2003-2007 and the current period from 2007-November 2011. From 2003-2008 the percent change in NiLF averaged 1.3% whereas from 2008 through November 2011 it averaged 2.9%, a difference of 1.6%. In actual persons, it converts to 1,385 thousand persons (86.558 x 1.6%). These are individuals who, in a more prosperous period would be part of the labor force, either employed or unemployed. If we add this number to the unemployed actually reported (13,303 thousand), we get a revised total unemployed of 14,688 thousand which equates to an unemployment rate of 9.5%.
Calculation:
Labor force.......................153,883
Employed..........................140,580
Unemployed........................ 13,303
Adjustment:
NiLF 1.6% X 86.558... 1,385
Revised labor force...............155,268 (153,883 + 1,385)
Revised unemployed................ 14,688 (13,303 + 1,385)
Revised unemployment rate......... 9.5%
Submitted by Andrew W. Caughey
