Harper, Machado: All The Ways The 2019 Phillies Could Shake Out

What will the Phillies look like in 2019? Here's a look at who's coming back, who might be gone, and who the team is hoping to add.

Catcher

The only real question here is whether the Phillies try to resign Wilson Ramos. “Buffalo” is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, but Jorge Alfaro showed he was ready for the job in 2018. It should be considered a surprise if the Phillies do sign the 31-year-old Ramos; look for them to return to Alfaro, with Andrew Knapp backing up, in 2019.

Infield Realignment: No Additions

Carlos Santana played a lot of third base down the stretch for the Phillies, and the team is obviously enamored of his on-base skills. Moving Santana to third full time opens up first base for Rhys Hoskins, which is a much more natural position for him.

That leaves Maikel Franco on the outside looking in, and some combination of Cesar Hernandez, J.P. Crawford, and Scott Kingery up the middle. This would keep the 2018 team largely intact, and is probably the only scenario where all four of these players are on the Opening Day roster.

Infield Realignment: Machado Style

If the Phillies get Machado, he can hypothetically play third or short. His preference is short, but he’s said he’ll play third “for the right team.”

In this scenario, Santana could play third, Machado short, Hoskins first, and then one of Hernandez, Kingery, or Crawford would play second. Of the two non-starters, one would function as the utility man, and one would either be traded (probably Hernandez) or designated to the minors (probably Crawford). It's hard to envision Franco remains on the roster if Machado is signed.

Infield: Other Options

It would appear unlikely the Phillies would add an infielder whose name is not Machado: things are just too crowded. The other major name is third baseman Josh Donaldson, who is one of the best hitters in the game when he's healthy, is also available. But he's 33 and coming off a rough year. He is, however, a solid defender, and would fit in with the Phillies weaknesses in that respect. He can only play third base, though, so his signing means that Santana stays at first, Hoskins stays in left, and Franco is on the bench.

Outfield: No Additions

Assuming the Phillies do move Santana to third and Hoskins to first, that leaves four starting caliber outfielders on the 40 man roster: Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr. Before the Phillies signed Santana last year, forcing Hoskins to the outfield, this was what many expected the team’s alignment to be into the future.

All four come with very different question marks. Herrera and Altherr have both played at an All Star level — Herrera at a borderline MVP level — for months at a time. They’ve both also gone through horrific, extended slumps that have caused fans to lose faith.

Quinn is an elite defender and baserunner and potential catalyst atop the lineup. However, he’s been injured so often that the Phillies will hesitate to move forward with him as the starter without a solid backup plan in place.

Williams, when given a chance to play consistently, has quietly been one of the best bats on the lineup. But Kapler favored Altherr at the beginning of the year, and there were so many options when rosters expanded in September, that Williams only had a few short months as an everyday player.

In this scenario, a healthy Quinn would likely get the nod as the opening day center fielder, with Herrera and Williams filling out the corners. Altherr would battle power hitting youngster Dylan Cozens, who hasn’t proven himself at the major league level yet, for the job of fourth outfielder.

Outfield: Harper Edition

Phillies fans have been waiting for this offseason for years. Machado is part of the reason, but Harper is arguably the bigger reason. He's a division rival, so fans are familiar with him, and he's been the face of the game alongside Mike Trout since he debuted in the majors as a teenager.

Harper can play right and center; with Kapler as manager, he'd probably do some of both. Quinn, Herrera, and probably Williams would fill out the roster.

Outfield: An Addition Not Named Harper

If the Phillies miss out on Harper, it’s not the end of the world. This is being called a historic free agent class for a reason. There are numerous other high-end outfield targets on the market.

The best names are A.J. Pollock, 31, Michael Brantley, 32, and Andrew McCutchen, 32. Pollock and Brantley have a worrisome injury history, but both have a high upside, and Pollock is an elite defender and five tool player when he’s clicking on all cylinders. McCutchen is past his NL MVP prime but is a virtual lock to offer above average contributions on the field, with the bat, and in the clubhouse.

If they miss Harper, look for the Phillies to sign one of those three names. Pollock would probably stay in center if he’s signed, putting a rotation of Herrera, Quinn, and Williams in the corners. McCutchen has been playing left for the Yankees, and might stay there if he came to Philly. Brantley is a left fielder.

Players like Adam Jones, Leonys Martin, and Nick Markakis are also available, but it would be surprising to see them given an everyday role in the Philadelphia outfield even if they are signed, as they do not represent a significant upgrade over existing options.

Pitching

Do the Phillies need another starting pitcher? Their arms looked to regress in the second half, but outside of Jake Arrieta's struggles, a lot of that was bad luck. Nick Pivetta maintained a 3.80 fielding independent pitching rate, which is a predictor of ERA that factors the impact of errors and poor fielding. Vince Velazquez had a 3.75 FIP. Those are very solid, mid-rotation numbers. Zach Eflin showed enough of a bounce back at the end of the year that he's at least on equal footing with Pivetta and Velazquez.

And that's not even counting Jerad Eickhoff, who has flashed potential for even better numbers than those three, and who will presumably be healthy in 2019.

With Arrieta and Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola returning, it's much less likely the Phillies front office will do anything drastic in terms of their rotation. A depth piece may be added, but a signing of someone like Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel seems unlikely, at least given what Kapler and general manager Matt Klentak have said publicly.

An addition at the trade deadline that temporarily pushes Velazquez to the bullpen seems more likely.

Things We Haven’t Addressed

The biggest one is Justin Bour, who is controlled through 2021. The former Marlins slugger has All Star potential, but he struggled in 2018 and there's no room for him to play anything close to everyday with both Hoskins and Santana ahead of him on the first base depth chart. The wisest thing for the Phillies to do is trade him and free up a bench spot for a more versatile backup like Kingery.

Other Potential Trades

Speaking of Kingery, it feels unlikely the team would part with him just a year after signing him to a massive contract extension. His 2018 was disappointing, but he clearly grew as a fielder, and the upside potential as a Jose Altuve-type is compelling. If a major addition comes in the infield and the outfield, the two most likely players to be traded are Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera. That's because both are established veterans who are simply too good to be bench pieces; they probably need to be guaranteed at least part-time play. They would also probably fetch a bigger return than someone the Phillies have long viewed as a building block and who is still untested, like J.P. Crawford.

A Glance At One Possible Best Case Scenario

It’s hard to think of a better scenario than the Phillies signing both Harper and Machado. They are one of the only teams in major league baseball with the positional need, the available financial resources, and the promising future needed to lure such superstars.

Because they still have so little money on the books, the Phillies could sign Harper and Machado and still have room for someone else. They might not go after the most expensive available closers, Craig Kimbrel and Jeurys Familia, but don't be surprised if they nab someone like Adam Ottavino, David Robertson, or Andrew Miller to add another late-inning weapon.

This alignment would give the Phillies high-ceiling bench depth of Kingery, Franco, Crawford, and Knapp, with Herrera splitting reps with Williams and Quinn in center and left. And a mid-order lineup of Hoskins-Santana-Harper-Machado would rival that of any in baseball right now.

Here's glimpse at a realistic best case scenario lineup and 25 man roster for 2019:

• CF: Roman Quinn (Odubel Herrera)
• 1B: Rhys Hoskins
• 3B: Carlos Santana (Maikel Franco)
• RF: Bryce Harper (free agent signing)
• SS: Manny Machado (free agent signing) (J.P. Crawford)
• LF: Nick Williams
• C: Jorge Alfaro (Andrew Knapp)
• 2B: Cesar Hernandez (Scott Kingery)

Starting Rotation:

1. Aaron Nola
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Vince Velazquez
4. Nick Pivetta
5. Zach Eflin

Bullpen:

• Seranthony Dominguez
• Adam Ottavino (free agent signing)
• Pat Neshek
• Tommy Hunter
• Edburay Ramos
• Hector Neris
• Jerad Eickhoff

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in 132 days.

Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images