Phillies 2017 Season Preview: 3 Things To Watch

PHILADELPHIA, PA -- It doesn’t feel like a full season has gone by since that cold, rainy November night last fall, when Philadelphia area baseball fans huddled into bars, diners, and living room sofas to watch the final outs of one of the greatest World Series in recent history.

There were reasons beyond the vicarious for Phillies fans to watch that diamond-staged Shakespearean saga to the end. There are elements of that Cubs franchise, filled with young talent and pieced together with great care by a forward thinking, young executive, that are not so very different from your humble Phillies.

Three years ago, most of the baseball world probably thought the Cubs were much, much more than a season or two away from ending their infamous streak. They were coming off an atrocious 66–96, basement dwelling 2013 campaign. 2014 saw a minor improvement: 73-89, still last place. But behind the scoreboard and the standings, the Cubs and President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein had been laying the groundwork for their coming meteoric rise for years. In 2015 the Cubs won 97 games and made it to the National League Championship Series. And last November, they won it all.

The Phillies and general manager Matt Klentak have followed a similar strategy to the Cubs: throw all resources into building the base of a franchise that can be a perennial World Series contender. They whittled their salary obligations down to nearly nothing. They made a series of smart trades, leaving their farm system bursting over with talent (there is barely enough room in the rotations in Philly and at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to hold all of their major league-ready young arms). They have one of the largest purses in all of baseball waiting to be unleashed on a free agent super star or two, when the moment is right. And their team of rookies and wily veterans has steadily improved: they were 63-99 in 2015, then 71-91 in 2016. Sound familiar?

Don’t expect the Phillies, like the 2015 Cubs, to win 97 games this season. But don’t be shocked if they are a .500 team on the bubble of Wild Card contention, either. And if they are, that big super star signing - and a foreseeable future of contention - might be just around the corner.

Here are five things to watch heading into the 2017 season:

Nick Williams and J.P. Crawford (and Aaron Altherr): Boom or Bust?

Phillies shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford remains one of the top-ranked prospects in baseball, coming in ranked number six on the 2017 pre-season list. His 2016 season - in which many had predicted he would break through to the big leagues - was slightly underwhelming offensively, but scouts don’t appear to be worried. Crawford, the 16th pick in the 2013 draft, turned 22 in January and has the premier defensive skills to stay at shortstop for the long-term. Long considered the heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins, Crawford struggled at the plate in the final half of 2016 after a promotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. But the raw tools are there, and if he starts to hit in 2017, it won’t be long until he’s pushing Freddy Galvis. Add to that the recent trade rumors fanned by the New York Post connecting Galvis to the New York Yankees to replace the ailing Didi Gregorious, and that timeframe could be accelerated.

Young outfielders Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr struggled with many things in 2016, but each is off to a hot start this spring. Williams will likely start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with Altherr probably slated as the Phillies fourth outfielder on Opening Day. If Williams plays well, a May call-up is not out of the cards. At that point, a hot bat for either one could force manager Pete Mackanin to put Howie Kendrick or Michael Saunders into a platoon role to accommodate the growth of the franchise’s building blocks. The Phillies will surely give highly touted young outfielders like Roman Quinn and Brock Stassi the chance to prove themselves, as well, if they are hitting, and if they are healthy.

Trade deadline: Buyers or Sellers?

2017 marks the first spring in a few years where this is a legitimate question. The Phillies loaded up with veteran talent over the offseason that could be attractive trade pieces at the deadline. Players like Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, Pat Neshek, and Joaquin Benoit are all signed to short term deals, and are probably not a part of the club’s long term plans. While their relief corps is shallow, the team has a glut of prospect depth in the outfield and the infield waiting for their turn. Even if the first half of the season goes poorly, the Phillies are ideally positioned to land a strong prospect return through a series of deadline deals.

But Mackanin has repeatedly said that the team’s goal is to play at around .500 this year. And Klentak has said they will consider leveraging their considerable financial flexibility sometime soon. If the Phillies are hovering around .500 and within striking distance of a Wild Card, they could just as easily trade away from one of their prospect positions of strength for a big name. Stars on likely non-competitive teams with contracts expiring soon could be great targets. The Phillies have been linked in rumors to players like Pirates All Star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen. They are also one of the few teams that could afford someone like the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, if the Fish decided they wanted to unload his massive salary.

Rotation

This offseason, this Phillies resigned Jeremy Hellickson and acquired Clay Bucholtz from the Red Sox. Hellickson is coming off of a stellar year and has already been named the Opening Day starter for the second year in a row. And while Bucholtz has performed as more of a back-end of the rotation guy, he’s a former All-Star who has the potential to improve on his recent performances given a move to the more pitcher-friendly NL East.

Those veterans will be backed by a trio of some of excellent young arms: Jerad Eickhoff (acquired in the 2015 Cole Hamels deal), Aaron Nola (2015 7th overall draft pick), and Vince Velasquez (acquired in the 2016 Ken Giles deal).

Waiting in the wings are more potential mid-rotation arms than the Phillies have room for: Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Ben Lively, and Alec Asher are all probably ready to start full time at the big league level, but barring something extraordinary, they’ll all start in Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Nick Pivetta and the biggest wild card, former number one overall pick Mark Appel, aren’t far behind.

Who gets the first call up - and when - will depend on injuries and the success of Bucholtz, in particular. Bucholtz is likely number 5 on the chart heading into the season, and a subpar performance could result in a move to the bullpen. Questions still linger about Aaron Nola’s elbow, which prematurely ended his 2016 campaign, but those questions are fading fast given his command and confidence this spring. If he regains his health, Eflin, who showed flashes of work-horse brilliance with the big club in 2016, would seem to be the next call-up. Thompson is the prospect with the highest pedigree, and has the least left of any of them to prove in the minors. One of these two will probably get the first call. And there is always the chance that Appel, now 25, develops into the front-line starter so many once thought he could be.

The Phillies season opener is Monday, April 3, against the Reds in Cincinnati. Their home opener is April 7 against the Nationals. For tickets, see here.

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