The Phillies Are Probably In The Jake Arrieta Sweepstakes

PHILADELPHIA, PA — Despite suggestions that they are not looking to spend big money this offseason, the Phillies are widely expected by industry veterans to be in talks with free agent ace Jake Arrieta, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2014.

The Phillies are among the most logical landing spots for the former Cubs righty, who has led the team to three straight National League Championship Series and a 2016 World Series victory. Not only are they one of the few teams that has the money needed to sign Arrieta, they also have a clear need for starting pitching and are about to enter a competitive window.

Arrieta is 31, which many have said is on the old side for a Phillies team that hopes to be good in 2018, but is heavily invested in the future as well. It wouldn't make sense to pay a premium price for a pitcher's declining years, the argument goes. Arrieta, however, is not a typical pitcher: due to injuries and limited usage, Arrieta has only thrown over 200 innings once in his career; before 2014, he had never thrown more than 119 innings in a season. That's far less mileage than the average 31-year-old starter.

Couple that with the fact that Arrieta is famous for his work ethic, cross-training, and fitness regimen (sounds like someone new Phillies manager Gabe Kapler would get along with), and you have an athlete that is primed to remain an elite pitcher - if not a Cy Young candidate - through his mid-30s. He's worth whatever price the Phillies have to pay for a four or five year deal.

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, who is often the first to hear trade and free agent chatter from around the league, reported the Phillies expected interest in Arrieta over the weekend:

"His four-plus seasons with the Cubs produced a 68-31 record and 2.73 ERA. He struggled in the first half of this past season, but in 12 second-half starts he went 6-3 with a 2.28 ERA. Arrieta should get plenty of attention in free agency, with the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies all likely to compete for a pitcher who will likely get close to $25 million a year. Whether it’s for four or five years is the question."

This seems to fly in the face of what the organization itself has publicly said about "likely" not increasing their payroll via free agency this winter. However, there are many reasons to suspect that the Phillies public statements should not be taken at face value; the most obvious of which is: why would they want anyone knowing who they are interested in? Being coy has its advantages, and it's well within Matt Klentak's repertoire. Those statements also included a caveat: if an opportunity comes along, it won't be passed up.

Arrieta, if he likes what the Phillies have to offer, is just such an opportunity. The main argument against the Phillies signing a big free agent this winter is that they don't want to damage their long term prospects. But the last two World Series champions - the Astros and Cubs - have shown that a young core can emerge far more quickly than expected to become elite. Both of those franchises were mired in similar funks to the Phillies of the last few seasons, and they did not turn that around with a few mediocre .500 seasons and a gradual rise to return to the top. They shot out of the basement with playoff-caliber performances.

Arrieta, alongside Aaron Nola would give the Phillies arguably two aces for at least the next three years. It would take pressure off of the Phillies stable of inconsistent but talented young arms, and if the organization signed one other mid-rotation arm like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, they could likely be assured they would find two solid back-end starters, and a slew of long relief options, out of Jerad Eickhoff, Ben Lively, Vince Velazquez, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and Mark Leiter Jr.

The city of Philadelphia has clearly spent way too much time investing faith in schemes - call them "processes," maybe - of various kinds. The Phillies might be ready to compete in 2018, and Arrieta is the low risk, high reward move that would get them there.

Patch file photo