Phillies Considering Signing Former Cy Young Dallas Keuchel

PHILADELPHIA, PA — He's not Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, but the latest rumors out on Friday morning connected the Phillies to free agent left hander Dallas Keuchel, a 2015 Cy Young award winner in the American League and the best remaning pitcher on the market.

Keuchel, who will be 31 on Opening Day next spring, pitched 204 innings of 3.74 ERA ball in 2018 for the Houston Astros ,where he's been at or near the top of their rotation since 2014.

The Phillies' interest in Keuchel, first cited by MLB Network insider Jon Morosi, has reportedly been tempered by Keuchel's asking price. They're apparently not currently comfortable meeting his request of a five-year contract.

Keuchel is a great fit for the Phillies. The first and most obvious reason is that he could be the only southpaw available. It's looking less and less likely, though still not impossible, that a trade for someone like Madison Bumgarner or Robbie Ray will happen this offseason.

Another important thing Keuchel brings to the table: his ability to induce ground balls. In 2014, 2015, and 2018, Keuchel led the majors in ground balls. He's paired that with four Gold Gloves in the past five years, meaning that even if the Phillies infield defense still isn't elite, it's notably improved when he's on the mound.

Couple that with two facts — firstly, that Citizens Bank Park is not a good place for fly ball pitchers, and secondly, the Phillies installation of Kentucky bluegrass in the stadium, which can be cut at a higher length and thus slows ground balls — and suddenly the interest in baseball's premier ground ball pitcher isn't just sabermetrics. It's common sense.

It's not insignificant to note that the Phillies infield defense will be notably better in 2019, even if they don't get Manny Machado. Utilityman Scott Kingery has another year of experience, and improved vastly by the end of the year. Jean Segura is a plus defender at short, Rhys Hoskins has graded out as at least average at first, and while Cesar Hernandez had a down year defensively in 2018, he played above average at the keystone in both 2016 and 2017. So signing another groundball pitcher (Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta also fall in this category) shouldn't neccessarily be seen as a death knell.

The fact that the Phillies are unwilling to go five years on Keuchel is unsurprising, given the fact that they were only willing to give five years to higher upside lefty, Patrick Corbin (Corbin ultimately got six from the division rival Nationals). However, as with just about any other free agent on the market, the Phillies have the most money to spend, and if asking price drops even a little, it's likely the Phillies will pounce.

Keuchel's position is very similar to Jake Arrieta's last winter. While Keuchel is a year younger and should expect at least a year more than the three years guarenteed to Arrieta, both are former Cy Young winners who have seemed to regress from dominant aces into solid mid-rotation pieces. Both also entered their respective free agency winters asking for much larger contracts (six, seven years) than they ultimately received.

Keuchel and his beard were vital in several Astros playoff runs over the past several years, helping them to a World Series championship in 2017.

If signed to something like a four year deal with an option for a fifth, the Phillies would inevitably improve upon what wound up being one of the eight or so best rotations in baseball in 2018. They'd have a postseason battle tested duo in Arrieta and Keuchel to back up the ace in Nola, and their pick of the most consistent between Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, or Jerad Eickhoff.

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