Phillies World Series Odds Skyrocket After Hot Stretch: What To Know

PHILADELPHIA, PA — Red October is officially back. And the Phillies may just enter the autumn as World Series favorites.

The Phils guaranteed themselves a playoff berth on Sunday despite a loss based on other games around the league, and they need only one more win or one more Mets loss over the final two weeks of the regular season to clinch their second consecutive National League East title.

It marks the fourth consecutive fall of October playoff baseball for the Phillies, who have been to the postseason every year since their magic run to the World Series in 2022.

And while playoff seeding is still to be determined, the Fightins find themselves in a very enviable position heading into the final 12 games of the regular season. They sit at 89-61, just two games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in baseball. They're also a comfortable 4.5 games ahead of the third seeded Los Angeles Dodgers, which is important because the first two teams in each league get a bye for the first round of the playoffs.

ESPN Bet has the Phillies at the second best odds to win the World Series, at plus 500. They're just behind the Dodgers, at plus 450. Similarly, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Phillies in second at plus 600, with a more generous plus 390 lead for the Dodgers.

And that could change this week. The Phillies open a three game series in LA on Monday night. Given how close the odds are, if the Phillies take this series, they could become the outright favorites.

As recently as the All Star break in early July, the Phillies sat around fourth or sixth in the odds, with bettors giving them around plus 1000 odds, depending on the sportsbook. It's all been uphill since then, especially in the midst of their recent red hot stretch, as they've gone 6-1 in their last 7 games and 13-4 since they were swept by the Mets on Aug. 28.

Gambling odds, of course, are not the most reliable or informative way to look at actual, non-betting favorites. Odds are often determined by a combination of factors, including how good a given team was expected to be heading into the year, the number of superstars they have, the size of the city they play in and their corresponding name recognition, and then, of course, their current performance.

The Phillies are likely the only team in MLB that entered the year as a playoff contender that has met or exceeded expectations. They are currently on pace for 97 wins, which would surpass 2024's total of 95 and mark the seventh straight full season they have improved their record. Most of MLB's other preseason juggernauts, the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Braves, Mets, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers, and more, have had significant struggles, even if they've maintained a playoff spot.

So almost by process of elimination, the Phillies, who have not suffered the extended losing streaks of all those other clubs this season, have maintained their status as a World Series favorite since the winter.

That's despite the loss of their ace Zack Wheeler to an elbow injury, and question marks surrounding shortstop Trea Turner's hamstring and third baseman Alec Bohm's shoulder. Turner, particularly, has been playing at an MVP level hitting from the leadoff spot, but since he hit the injured list on Sept. 8, the Phillies have gone 6-1. The Phillies have expressed confidence that Bohm will be back imminently and that Turner will be healthy by the time the postseason begins.

While some shuffling in the playoff seeding remains possible, if it all began today, the Phillies and Brewers would have the first round bye. As the second seed, the Phillies would have home field advantage in the National League Division Series against the winner of the Dodgers and the Mets series, the current third and sixth seeds. The Brewers, meanwhile, would face the winner of the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs.