Philly-Based Journal Publishes Paper On Baseball Rule Changes

PHILADELPHIA – Ever feel like baseball is too slow? If so, you may be interested in a new paper from one of the nation's leading game theorists that argues with some rule changes, America's pastime would be all the more exciting for fans, as well as create a potential boon for the MLB and its teams.

A Philadelphia-based journal recently published a paper by a New York University professor of politics that argues baseball would be more engaging and exciting with a new set of rules.

SIAM Review, a peer-reviewed journal produced by Philadelphia-based Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), published "Making the Rules of Sports Fairer" by Steven Brams of NYU.

In the paper, Brams outlines how the "Catch-Up Rule" can help make league play in different sports more thrilling for spectators by giving an advantage to losing teams during play.

"Baseball is steadily losing ground to football as the major American sports pastime because fans are losing interest during long games or one-sided victories," said Steven Brams, a New York University professor of politics. "If we followed a new set of rules, based on proven mathematical algorithms and computations, we could keep the spirit of the game intact but get people more engaged by making play more competitive."

Brams, a leading American game theorist, says a new set of rules will make the leagues more competitive, shorten games, better entertain fans and ultimately increase ballpark revenue by keeping attendance high.

"The game would be more competitive and you wouldn’t see as many blowouts," he said, noting that spring training is the ideal time to test the new rules, which can also be tried out by farm teams in minor league baseball. "This is about modifying the game so that the team behind always has a chance to catch up, but it will also lead to changes in strategy."

Brams co-authored the paper with Mehmet Ismail, a post-doctorate fellow at King’s College in London, U.K.

In the case of baseball, Brams said his proposed changes include making teams that are ahead in score retire after two outs at bat instead of three. If a team goes ahead during an inning, and already has two outs, it would have to retire immediately.

This is similar to providing a handicap in golf or a first-serve advantage in tennis, but it differs because it is applied during the course of play based on what’s happening in the moment on the field.

Brams is using applied mathematical methods – such as probability theory, game theory and recurrence relations – to analyze past baseball statistics and re-running games to see how outcomes are affected with his proposed rules. Early results showed games would be quite a bit shorter and scores would be closer, he said.

The idea of making changes to keep baseball entertaining and increase revenue isn’t new.

MLB is already eyeing putting a runner on second base at the start of the 10th inning when games go into etra innings.

Other proposals include nixing pitches on intentional walks, introducing a pitch clock, and limiting visits to the pitcher’s mound. Brams claims those changes are cosmetic only, and that his are more likely to make games significantly more competitive and fairer.

"Other proposals are simply tinkering with the rules. Our proposal is backed by game theory and mathematical analysis," he said. "We should see more teams competing in the pennant race rather than just two or three."

Brams also laid out changes to other pro sports.

In football, he suggested giving the leading team three rather than four attempts to make a first down, and in basketball he said the leading team should only be given 18 seconds on the shot clock as opposed to 24 to make a play in the final minutes of a game.

"Game theory is a thriving field of mathematics that is being applied to all walks of life, including politics, economics, history, literature, philosophy and law," Brams said. "It seems only natural that we should also be applying it to reforming the rules of sports."

You can read the entire paper online here.

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