Sooner Or Later, Phillies Must Address Roster Excesses

PHILADLEPHIA, PA — It took years of rebuilding, a few clever trades, and a handful of free agent signings, but the Phillies are now bursting at the seams with above average major league talent.

As recently as the 2016 season, a player like Dylan Cozens, for example, or even a reliever like Victor Arano, would be receiving tremendous attention. As it stands, both are multiple injuries, underperfomances, or trades away from a slot on the 25-man roster.

Despite this glut of good, but not great talent, the Phillies still find themselves in a tricky position in the NL East. The division is suddenly the most competitive in all of baseball, with four playoff caliber teams, all of whom have already made major additions this winter. And as roster construction presently stands, the Phils are probably checking in at the lower end of those four, on paper.

Yet they have depth almost everywhere, to an extent unmatched by any of the Braves, Mets, or Nationals. Every part of the Phillies has more capable, promising players than is useful; and if "stupid" money is spent, a few great players are on the way. To make the most out of what they have, the Phillies will have to get creative.

Here's a look at all of the Phillies' positions of depth, and some possible outcomes that could make an about-average team a champion.

Rotation

The rotation will obviously include ace Aaron Nola and former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta.

Beyond that, it's well known the Phillies are looking to add one left-hander to this mix, who would presumably slot somewhere in the top three. After missing on Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel (free agent) and Madison Bumgarner (Giants) remain possibilities.

Assuming the Phillies are successful and do land their leftie, that leaves four very capable mid-rotation arms to fill out two final spots: Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, and Jerad Eickhoff.

One of those four players could conceivably serve as a long reliever, but it's hard to imagine two doing it, especially given the similar logjam in the bullpen. One could be optioned to the minors, but it's also hard to imagine a pitcher of that caliber wasting very much time in AAA.

Bumgarner might be the only leftie available via trade who is an unequivocal improvement over those four. But with his recent injuries and the fact that he'd come with only one year of control (he's a free agent after the 2019 season) the Phillies will be judicious in what they give up. Really, former Mariner James Paxton would have been the best target, but the Yankees nabbed him via trade way back in November.

An intriguing third option is adding a leftie who has had success as both a starter and reliever. Rumors have connected the Phils to Texas Rangers southpaw Mike Minor over the past week. In that scenario, even more of the surfeit is shifted down to the bullpen. In this case, the Phillies could feel free to make their big starting pitching acquisition a righty (like the Indians' Corey Kluber) with the idea that Minor could used as a longman multiple times a week.

But in reality, the Phillies probably can't keep all four of their present starters —Velasquez, Pivetta, Eflin, and Eickhoff — and add a starting leftie or Minor.

Bullpen

The locks here are Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris, along with (probably) the newly acquired trio of Juan Nicasio, James Pazos, and Jose Alvarez (the latter two are deliberately acquired lefties, thus feel like locks). After that, assuming a three-man bench and a five-man rotation, the Phils will have room for four more pitchers in their nine-man bullpen.

To fill those four spots there are at least six very capable pitchers: Victor Arano, Edubray Ramos, Adam Morgan, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, and Jerad Eickhoff (and at least one more of the aforementioned starters, if a leftie starter is added).

Add on top of that the likelihood the Phillies add another high-powered, back of the bullpen arm like Zach Britton or Craig Kimbrel, and now there are only three spots for those six.

A good argument could be made for all six. Arano and Ramos are coming off unheralded breakout years. Morgan's a lefty, Neshek and Hunter are experienced and they're being paid handsomely, and Eickhoff has proven himself as a mid-rotation starter when healthy. Yet at least three, in all likelihood, will not start 2019 in Philadelphia.

Outfield

Andrew McCutchen was just signed, so it's probably not realistic to expect that more than three of Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, and Dylan Cozens will begin 2019 in Philadelphia.

There also still looms the possibility of the Phillies adding someone here, though of available free agents, anyone not named Bryce Harper or AJ Pollock would not represent an improvement.

Cozens is still young, so he could easily go down to Triple-A. Herrera is the only one that costs anything, meaning he is probably a less attractive trade chip. He's also the most established the most solid bet of the batch to be on the Opening Day roster.

That leaves Quinn, Altherr, and Williams to fill only two available spots. That would be just one available spot if they sign Harper or Pollock.

Infield

The big question here is obviously Manny Machado. If he's signed, there's a one man surplus, and the odd man out is probably Maikel Franco.

If he doesn't sign, and the Phillies don't look for another third baseman (Mike Moustakas has floated around the rumor mill, but he's more expensive than Franco, older than Franco, and arguably not an improvement over Franco), the Phillies infield mix looks established for the forseeable future between Franco at third, Jean Segura at shortstop, Cesar Hernandez at second, and Rhys Hoskins at first, with Scott Kingery reprising the superutility role.

The Surplus

The below surplus is pure conjecture, but it assumes the Phillies achieve what they set out to accomplish in the remainder of the winter: add one starter, one reliever, and one of those three big hitters: Machado, Harper, or Pollock.

If they do that, below are the seven least valuable players who would be left without a roster spot. And they're all valuable: Jerad Eickhoff, Victor Arano, Edubray Ramos, Adam Morgan, Dylan Cozens, Aaron Altherr, and either Nick Williams or Maikel Franco (depending if the added bat is an infielder or outfielder).

Some of these players can be optioned to provide neccessary depth at Triple-A, sure. But these are not depth type players, they're starters. And while there could be injuries that would shift them back into that role, the overwhelming likelihood is that there will be a significant surplus of talented players simply too good to put on waivers or ship down to Triple-A.

Trade Scenarios

The best case scenario, really the only scenario which doesn't involve the Phillies losing talent for nothing, is that they use this surplus to fill their needs, rather than sign free agents in all of those spots.

Using this surplus wisely means the Phillies probably wouldn't have to sacrifice their best prospects or all of their money to improve. It could mean trading for two or three players, so the money can be used on just one this year.

Teams like the Indians (Kluber), Giants (Bumgarner), Rangers (Minor), or even less talked about teams like the Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman), Tigers (Michael Fulmer), or Royals (Danny Duffy) are all in various stages of rebuilding or reconstructing their rosters, and all could use some combination of a young, MLB-ready outfielder and a reliever or two. They might be more logical targets for the Phillies than a free agent like Dallas Keuchel right now.

Then there are four names from two teams who have already sold big this winter: reliever Archie Bradley, starter Robbie Ray, and outfielder David Peralta, all from the Diamondbacks, and Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger.

All four are unlikely to be moved, but it's not impossible, and the Phillies have the young, controllable players that would significantly accelerate the rebuilds going on in Seattle and Arizona. Bradley and Ray would be nice consolation prizes if the Phillies miss Britton or Keuchel, while Haniger or Peralta are among the only established stars that could conceivably be traded that would lessen the sting of missing out on Harper or Machado.

As a bonus, any of the four would come cheap, so that's even more money for the Phillies to give Harper or Machado this year, or a free agent like Nolan Arenado next year, or Mike Trout the year after that.

Taken one by one, it might not seem like the players in the Phillies projected surplus are good enough to earn that kind of return. But all of them are young, cheap, and controllable for several years. And most importantly, all of them have a good measure of unfulfilled promise which is less likely to have an opportunity to shine in Philadelphia.

It may not happen before the New Year, but odds are good we'll see a significant Phillies trade before too long.

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