Biden Building Commanding Lead Over Trump In PA, New Poll Says

PENNSYLVANIA — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has dramatically increased his lead over President Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

The poll has Biden up 54 percent to 42 percent, a significant jump over last month's Monmouth survey that had Biden leading by just four percentage points in the Keystone State with a 49-45 percent edge.

Those numbers don't bode well for the president, who returned to the White House from the hospital Monday despite still being infected with the coronavirus.

Surveyed on the health crisis, 52 percent of Pennsylvania voters trust Biden more to handle the coronavirus pandemic and 32 percent give the edge to Trump on this issue. Before the president’s diagnosis was made public, 52 percent trusted Biden more and 34 percent trusted Trump. After the news broke, it was 52 percent for Biden and 29 percent for Trump.

“We’ve grown accustomed to big news not having any effect on the needle," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a news release. "This is not good news for Trump, who really needs to see that needle move. If anything, the president’s health crisis may be reminding voters about their own vulnerability."

Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are tied for fifth-most and the state was one of three traditionally blue states that propelled Trump to victory in 2016. Trump, in fact, was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

But Trump's margin of victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago was razor-thin. More than six million votes were cast in Pennsylvania and Trump won by 44,000 - or less than one percent. It will be difficult for the president, who was making regular Pennsylvania appearances before contracting COVID-19, to capture a second term without winning Pennsylvania.

When survey respondents were asked about how much of the following issues worry them personally, the top concerns for voters are the possible breakdown of law and order (58 percent worry a lot) and the coronavirus pandemic (54 percent). Next was concern over having access to medical care if needed (46 percent) and concern that they will have a stable income in 2021 (44 percent).

“Trump may be strongest on jobs and the economy but that seems to be an issue that is farther
down the list of things that keep Pennsylvanians up at night," Murray said. "On the other hand, an issue he has successfully elevated in the debate – law and order – may actually be helping his opponent more."

Another concern for Trump is that he is lagging significantly behind Biden despite the fact that the GOP has registered twice as many voters in Pennsylvania than Democrats in recent months.

Trump just doesn't have problems in Pennsylvania. A RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows Biden with a 9.2 point advantage with just 28 days remaining before the November 3 election.

See the entire Monmouth poll results here.