Who Will The Phillies Take With First Overall Pick in Draft?

Who will the Phillies take with the number one overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft on Thursday night?

They're presented with an array of options, and at this point, there does not seem to be a clear favorite.

Unlike certain years, there is no singular talent that stands out above the rest of the draft class. When Bryce Harper was taken by the Washington Nationals with the first overall pick in 2010, he was obviously the best player available.

2016 is a different year. There is no player that has - as of yet - distinguished himself from the rest of the pool. Different players fit different needs, and some are on very different timetables.

One of the more important distinctions any team must make when drafting is whether they want a player who has already proven himself and is relatively "low risk," or a player with a very high ceiling who could turn out to be nothing at all.

The reality is that a high draft pick is no guarantee of a high return. Baseball is different than football and basketball; many first round draft picks in the MLB draft don't even make it onto a major league roster, never mind blossom into a star or an everyday player. There is much more development in baseball, both physical and mental, which goes into rising from the high school or college ranks to the pros.

The two players that have been the most talked about over the last several months are University of Florida pitcher A.J. Puk and Barnegat, New Jersey high school standout pitcher Jason Groome.

However, the Phillies might even not be considering Groome, according to the latest rumors. And Puk, who continues to be most commonly forecasted as the number one overall talent, may be lower in Philly's rankings for a reason that is often overlooked: pitching is not the greatest need in Philadelphia.

Moreover, both players fall into the high risk, high reward category. And both players are, in the very best case scenario, at least a few years away from contributing in Philadelphia.

Given these factors, it is very possible that the Phillies ignore the two most hyped talents in the draft and select a college hitter that has a higher chance of impacting the team sooner rather than later.

A similar strategy paid dividends (although they chose a pitcher) when the Phillies took Aaron Nola 7th overall in 2014. Two years later, Nola has already developed into a budding ace at the head of their starting rotation. In fact, Nola was already contributing to the team just a little over a year after being drafted, as he was called up - and performed well - in the summer of 2015.

If anything, the Phillies have a surplus of pitching. Of five starting rotation spots, three are already locked down for the foreseeable future: Nola, Vincent Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. They also have a bastion of talent in their minor league system that will be ready for the majors over the next year or two, including, in rough order of a possible call-up, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Mark Appel, and Ben Lively, with Franklyn Kilome on the horizon.

Their most pressing need is a dynamic hitter. And if they want to have a hitter who can produce sooner rather than later, that hitter should be an advanced player that can rise through the minors rapidly.

That would seem to narrow their options to three, and maybe four: Kyle Lewis, out of Mercer University, Corey Ray, out of Louisville University, and Nick Senzel, from the University of Tennessee. Mickey Moniak, a high school outfielder out of southern California, could rise also rise quickly.

Of the three, Lewis was reportedly in Philadelphia on Monday for the team to see him workout.

Ray, however, is the best combination of power and speed in the draft. He's the top pick of some well-known analysts, and he can play any outfield position. His best attributes could also be ascribed to Moniak, with the exception that Ray is several years older and will be ready to contribute much sooner.

"I don't know if there is such a thing as a 'for-sure' thing," Louisville coach Dan McDonnell told Philly.com of Ray, "but I think he's pretty darn close to that."

Top 7 Predictions: 1. Phillies: Ray, 2. Reds: Senzel, 3. Braves: Puk, 4. Rockies: Moniak, 5. Brewers: Groome, 6. Athletics: Lewis, 7. Marlins: Riley Pint