5 Reasons Why the Phillies Will Win the NL East

1. THE FAB FOUR:  With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have arguably one of the greatest pitching rotations in baseball history.  Having an arsenal of Roy “Doc” Halladay, the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner, Roy Oswalt, one of the most stalwart right-handers of the last decade, Cliff Lee, another former Cy Young Award winner and superb post-season performer, and  Cole Hamels, MVP of the 2008 World Series, it’s not too unrealistic to foresee another championship flag hanging above Citizens Bank Park.  With these four aces hurling every fifth day, it’s not unreasonable to forecast an incredible friendly competition among these splendid performers, resulting in even loftier achievements by the quartet.
2. A HEALTHIER BALLCLUB:  Last year, despite their defeat to a deserving San Francisco Giant club, the Phillies won 97 games, a number which, incidentally, led all of major league baseball.  This feat was accomplished despite the fact that just about each and every member of the starting eight, with the exception of the departed Jayson Werth, spent considerable time on the disabled list.  This included key players Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino, all for significant time.  The Phils also lost closer Brad Lidge and key late inning workhorse, Ryan Madson, for considerable time.  The odds of losing all of these integral pieces are remote.
3. DEEP BENCH:  Ol’ Charlie now realizes he can lose a key cog and survive.  Wilson Valdez, an unsung hero all throughout 2010, filled in superbly for Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco.  Skipper Charlie Manuel also knows that he has one of the best pinch-hitters in baseball in Ross Gload, who comes up swinging each plate appearance.  Brian Schneider provides a veteran backup to “Chooch” Ruiz and once youngster Domonic Brown proves both healthy and worthy (or is that “Werthy”?) of playing regularly, Ben Francisco will provide even more depth.
4. LACK OF COMPETITION IN THE EAST:  Although the Atlanta Braves have an outstanding ball club, the retirement of proven closer Billy Wagner, leaves huge shoes to be filled.  Add the retirement of future Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox to the mix, and the Braves have major question marks.  Also, future first-ballot Hall of Famer Chipper Jones is long in the tooth and has been injury prone in recent years.
5. A COMPENDIUM OF FACTORS:  First of all, too much is being made of the loss of Chase Utley.  Utley, a terrific player and competitor, may be lost for two or three months, or perhaps for the entire season.  However, how many folks realize the following:  Utley’s  OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) has gone down for four consecutive years.  And quite frankly, he wasn’t exactly having a stellar season before his injury last season.  Another factor is that with an overwhelming starting staff, the Phils can make any obstacles such as injuries or temporary inept offensive production, seem insignificant.  Charlie Manuel’s steady hand at the helm would also prevent any major collapse by a very deep ball club.

I believe that this Phillies team is destined to not only win their division, but eventually reach the World Series this year.  The San Francisco Giants return a formidable pitching staff and some terrific position players, however, I believe that the Colorado Rockies just might unseat them from their pedestal on top of the NL West.  Although at times, this Phillies team will seem a bit offensively challenged, I’m forecasting a GREAT comeback season from Jimmy Rollins and terrific seasons from both Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard.  And, oh my, that Fab Four.

Editor's Note: Statistician and writer Scott Russell will be writing Sunday columns about the Phillies all season long.

 Will the Phillies win the NL East this year? If they do, how far will they go in the post season?