5 Reasons Why the Phillies Won't Win the NL East

Editor's Note: Statistician and writer Scott Russell opines on the Phillies in this column on Sundays. 

 1)  The 2011 version of the Philadelphia Phillies is not exactly a youth movement.  At some point during this campaign, the Phillies key components will read as follows:  Ryan Howard, 31, Chase Utley, 32, Jimmy Rollins, 32, Placido Polanco, 35, Raul Ibanez, 39, Shane Victorino, 30, Carlos Ruiz, 32, Roy Halladay, 34 and Roy Oswalt, 34.  Add to the natural aging process, the fact that Jimmy Rollins, the key catalyst and on-field leader, cannot seem to stay healthy and early discouraging health news on Chase Utley and Brad Lidge, and it’s starting to look like 2010 all over again.

2) ATLANTA BRAVES:  The Atlanta Braves were already a formidable opponent, but when you take into account the addition of slugger Dan Uggla, a seemingly healthy Chipper Jones, a young superstar, Jason Heyward, entering his sophomore season and an outstanding starting rotation featuring Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, it becomes evident that the 2011 season will not be a cakewalk for the Phils.  Plus, when you take into consideration Brad Lidge’s questionable health, the Atlanta Braves seem to have a significant edge in the bullpen.  Although we have dependable Ryan Madson, the Braves have a seemingly deeper bullpen, with the likes of Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty and the two flame-throwers at the tail end, southpaw Jonny Venters and right-hander Craig Kimbrel.

3) FLORIDA MARLINS:  Despite the loss of Dan Uggla, the Marlins have perhaps the most talented youngsters in all of baseball.  Mike Stanton, the young outfielder, has light-tower power, reminiscent of a young Dave Kingman, but unlike Kingman, this kid is an all around player.  Young first-baseman Gaby Sanchez, also had an outstanding rookie year. However, the player I’m most impressed with is another sophomore, Logan Morrison.  Morrison actually reminds me of a young George Brett, a legendary Hall of Famer.  Despite the fact that Morrison only hit two home runs in 244 at bats in his rookie season, I believe that he will develop into a productive long ball hitter, too.  The Marlins starting staff of hard throwing Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, the newly acquired Javier Vazquez and Chris Volstad, may not match the Phils’ Fab Four, but they are no pushovers, either.

4) THE NEW YORK METS:  All right, you can stop laughing now.  Seriously, if any team can surpass the Phils’ spate of injuries the last few years, the Mets certainly qualify.  Remember folks, this team from NYC has some terrific ballplayers, when HEALTHY.  David Wright, the third-baseman, outfielder Jason Bay, shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Carlos Beltran are all legitimate all-stars.  Ike Davis, a powerful first-baseman, had a terrific rookie season and Angel Pagan, finally got a chance to play regularly and took advantage of it.  Yes, Johan Santana, arguably one of the best southpaws in baseball, may indeed, be out until mid-season, but Mike Pelfrey has great stuff, R.A. Dickey had a terrific year throwing his knuckler and the addition of 6’10” Princeton basketball great, Chris Young, may turn out to be a boon to the allegedly lowly Mets.  Young, a classy person and team leader, is a terrific hurler when healthy.  And just think, if the Mets can keep Francisco Rodriguez healthy, and out of jail, he is also an asset.  Just sayin’.  

5) DAVEY LOPES:  The loss of a first-base coach?  This is really not a stretch.  I’m sure Sam Perlozzo, in moving across the diamond from third to first, is a terrific coach, but one cannot underestimate the positive effect Lopes had on the Phillies being the most successful (percentage wise) base-stealing team in many decades.  It will be a bit strange to look down at first this year and not see Davey with his dangling stop-watch.