Good News and Bad News in the Weather Forecast this Week

Last week's article talked about the potential for a coastal low to develop and wreak havoc on our weather this week. 

That potential has been realized as a coastal trough is aligned off of the Carolina coast and will slowly push northward into our area for the start of the new week.

The good news?  It won't rain all of the time.

The bad news? It might take until Memorial Day Weekend for it to clear out of here.

This trough's slow movement isn't unusual for May systems that develop and like to linger off of the Atlantic coastline.  As the Bermuda High and the Southeastern US "heat high" develop, frontal boundaries tend to stall out along the East Coast, sometimes hanging out for a period of days before they finally get pushed out to sea or simply fizzle away. 

In this case, despite a second front coming in from the west on Tuesday to try to push the coastal trough out of the way, the second front simply stalls out along the East Coast and we get a continued period of clouds and some showers.

This front gets stuck between high pressure that pushes down from Canada into New England and squeezed to the south by the summer heat high. As a result, it will throw occasional rounds of drizzle, showers, and occasional periods of dry weather in between.  Highs for Thursday and Friday could end up a bit lower than projected here, depending on how much moisture is along the front.  The computer guidance I look at varies between more showers and just clouds/sunny breaks.

Memorial Day weekend does bring the potential for heat and even some humidity.  That Canadian high I talked about will gradually build overhead and the stuck front will fizzle away by Saturday.  Temperatures on Saturday should warm into the 80's, with a run at 90 possible on Sunday.  Another cool front might try to sneak down from the north for Memorial Day, bringing a chance of showers and storms. 

It wouldn't be Memorial Day weekend without some chance of rain sometime over those three days!
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Tom Thunstrom is the editor and publisher of Phillyweather.net. You can follow the site on twitter@phillywx.